Norman v Shearer: Melissa Lee concedes defeat on RNZ (3 weeks before election)

What a fascinating campaign National's great Mt Albert hope is running: shoot your mouth off talking crazy shit, avoid the media, be unavailable for public meetings and now - breaking the second rule of the Melissa Lee campaign book - she's gone on National Radio and admitted she can't win the by-election. FFS. This is beyond a meltdown, beyond an implosion. Expect to come second? Love, expect to come third.

It is now between the grey men: Dr Russel Norman and David Shearer.

Can the Nat's stomach voting for a Green just to upset Labour? A Green victory on the 13th of June would give the Nats a better chance of winning the electorate with local stalwart and bilked candidate, Ravi Musuku, in 2011 on a split vote between Shearer and Norman). Norman has actually positioned himself very well to capture Nat votes. He's co-operating (minimally through a memo of understanding) with the Nats over home insulation, his comments about the form of the super city were similar to the governement's positions - although nebulous - on having a capped local rate to be administered by the local board. But most handily his billboards paint him in a boring, safe, conservative National - friendly

RNZ reporting

Green Party candidate Russel Norman says Ms Lee has thrown in the towel.

ACT Party candidate John Boscawen says Ms Lee is being realistic about her chances.

Boscawen is relishing this. He was in good heart at the candidate's meeting I attended earlier in the week, but he can't win what is still a very working class seat. He would be happy now to pull an additional 5% of disgruntled Tory voters and say end up somewhere under 10%.

Shearer's main problem is his waffle, as Duncan Garner kindly put it, when he ought to be speaking clearly and on topic. Norman has more experience in these matters. Even though his stint was short after he was rotated in as a replacement list MP when Nandor lost the co-leadership bid to him, he has been toughened up in the parliamentary bear pit the way it looks like Shearer has not. I've seen Norman deliver a speech with Winston Peters sitting directly across the isle and shouting and haranguing him at every sentence - that sort of political baptism (rather than his background as an academic and a campaign manager) is Norman's head start.

Norman has Mt Albert's 11% Green Party vote at last year's general election at this point. That is his base. Lee's self-immolation on RNZ this morning means he now has momentum regardless of any bullshit poll that the Nat's will try to cook up to save Lee's arse. He now needs a 5% chunk of former Helen voters and to lure across the majority of those (now alienated) National voters who voted Musuku last time. This is a tricky task. Pandering to one will open up an exposed flank to the other.

He will inevitably have to attack Shearer head on - this will cause a bite back from Labour and the lads at the Standard which has only been hinted at when this campaign begun.
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