Referendum campaign

UMR polling on the Super city and the mayoralty show that Banks is ahead despite the high negatives:
The poll shows that public support for a super city (defined as 1 Mayor/1 Council over whole of Auckland Region including both rural districts) is split down the middle. (click on images to enlarge).
Many people are calling for a referendum on the super city, but this initial polarisation shown in the survey - with the lower socio-economic classes/females skeptical and the upper socio-economic classes/males more in favour - is not overly helpful in turning Hide's mind around on this. If it was a resounding yes to the super city - by a substantial margin Hide would probably call a referendum himself. This is not the case and it will be a difficult - though not impossible - sell.

The questions I've raised for the Referendum campaigners:

The referenda issue will break down into:

WHEN should it happen?
- after April 2010 boundary setting by LGC?
- before October 2010 local body elections?
- this year?

WHO should be asked
- what areas/districts? as a whole or individual TLAs?
- Maori?

WHAT question should they be asked?
- Yes/No format?
- 2 or 3 options?

The other issue is what is your motivation to campaign for a referendum? To campaign against the Tories, or to secure a referendum?

If you manage to force Hide into calling a referendum what would you prefer the question to be? Hide would want a Yes campaign and for it to sail through. But do you? I don't think he would risk putting anything up that would not command a 60/40 majority, unless it was a narrow loss if the turn-out was anything under 50% - certainly under 40%, then he could live with it and carry on.

To be fair the polling that shows only 10% as unsure is indicative only - taken as it must have been when information was still being released (and still has to be released). You would think with so little flesh on the leviathan there would be more uncertainty with the public - apparently not - they have an initial gut reaction and that will persist in large part no doubt through the information campaign. But as a straw poll it's 50/50. What will make it 60/40 or better?