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Tuesday, April 28, 2009

2million - 7.5 million global dead prediction from Swine Flu

BREAKING NEWS Health officials have confirmed they are investigating a further 56 cases of suspected swine flu in New Zealand in addition to the 10 Rangitoto College students still awaiting their results.

The new cases all involve people who have visited Mexico or the United States in the last few weeks and who have presented with flu-like symptoms.

The World Health Organisation has escalated its handling of the outbreak, moving from a phase three to a phase four plan. It also announced it has started work on a vaccine

Cost of bad pandemic put at $24b
A severe influenza pandemic could deliver a $24 billion hit to the economy, the Treasury estimates. After the 2006 bird flu scare, a Treasury paper, using the infection and mortality rates of the 1918 Spanish flu outbreak, estimated a severe pandemic could wipe up to 10 per cent off gross domestic product, equivalent to up to $16 billion. Over four years estimated losses would accumulate to about 10 per cent or 15 per cent of one year's gdp. About 40 per cent of the population would be infected and 2 per cent of those would die; equivalent to about 35,000 people. In a typical year about 5 per cent of adults and 20 per cent of children suffer from an influenza-like illness. The impact of a less severe pandemic, similar to those in 1958 and 1967, would cut gdp by up to 2.1 per cent in the first year, roughly the impact of a typical business cycle downturn. "Although the economic effects may be dwarfed by the social and human costs of death and illness, it is still important to evaluate how a pandemic may affect the economy so as to guide policy interventions to lessen the economic impact."

Watching sky news and their expert on the virus from Geneva suggests a worst case scenario (the virus is mutating fast so they say this could go either way at this stage) will be a global death rate of anything between 2million and 7.5million. That's a lot of people for us to lose within 3 months (that's how fast they predict the virus will spread around the planet and burn out), and it may be the social tears in the social fabric that are most damaging. The interesting issue as far as I can tell about this virus is that it still isn't killing anyone outside of Mexico, so the virus has either encubated in Mexico and is the new strain or it was the old strain which has evolved into something less lethal.


At 28/4/09 9:19 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

is it any relation to the rage virus and if so, should i buy a gun?

At 28/4/09 10:13 am, Blogger Marty Mars said...

Sorry Bomber but this is all a load of shit. Designed to sell newspapers and Tamiflu, designed to increase fear, designed to add zero to the totality of human knowledge.
What are the FACTS?
How many have died?
Whay are people taking tamiflu?
What extra security at arirports will be needed?

Now I could be wrong and if i am I am sure someone will let me know but... whoops (cough cough)

At 28/4/09 12:24 pm, Anonymous macdoctor said...


Facts: 149 people in Mexico have died, 20 have so far been confirmed as having swine flu. There is proven human to human transmission, making this potentially much more dangerous than bird flu. The Mexican doctors say that all those who had Tamiflu survived. Extra security at airports is pointless. At this stage it is probably too late to try proper containment.


There are a number of reasons why deaths have only been in Mexico. The virus may have mutated into a more benign form, as you say. Mexican medical facilities may be less adequate (although no one seems to be critically ill in the US).

But the most likely reason is that there simply have not been enough cases outside of Mexico, yet.

At 28/4/09 12:53 pm, Blogger Marty Mars said...

Thanks macdoc, it's good that you use the term "potentially". And if as you say, containment isn't an option, then all we have left is facemasks. Will they do the job?

I wonder what a comparative graph (of cases or deaths or production of a vaccine or newspaper headlines) of this crisis with, say SAR's or birdflu would show.

At 28/4/09 6:08 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

macdoc: So what if 20 (or even 149) people have died from swine flu?

Compare these numbers with people dying in Mexico from regular flu or any other disease you can think of. The fact is Mexico is a 3rd world country which is why swine flu originated there in the first place.

At 28/4/09 7:11 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...


This "epidemic" will fizzle out like a five-inch wonder!

At 28/4/09 10:21 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

look people, the main problem is what calibre uzi i need to buy. why cant you all answer this simple question or are you in on it? oh god...

At 29/4/09 12:07 am, Blogger Luke said...

Before we go nuts like Y2K, Birdflu, SARS, Anthrax etc etc, lets do the research and look at whos gonna profit from this.
Yes money.

We've been in existence how long? Do you think that this is the first time in human history we have kept pigs together and that the conditions have caused illness?


Also don't be fooled into any vaccine that is offered if this soon to be labeled "pandemic" takes grip of civilization. The company looking to cure this...


is the same company that recently nearly created another pandemic!!!

"People familiar with biosecurity rules are dismayed by evidence that human H3N2 and avian H5N1 viruses somehow co-mingled in the Orth-Donau facility. That is a dangerous practice that should not be allowed to happen, a number of experts insisted.

Accidental release of a mixture of live H5N1 and H3N2 viruses could have resulted in dire consequences.

While H5N1 doesn’t easily infect people, H3N2 viruses do. If someone exposed to a mixture of the two had been simultaneously infected with both strains, he or she could have served as an incubator for a hybrid virus able to transmit easily to and among people.

That mixing process, called reassortment, is one of two ways pandemic viruses are created. "

Why the FUCK would the W.H.O. want ANY help from this company what so ever!

Stay informed folks.

At 29/4/09 4:02 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

look, its 4 in the morning and i havent slept for 3 days, just taking my stash of now banned party pills, waiting for the virus to strike and the possiblity of having to start digging a bunker is fast becoming a reality.
Is the virus any relation to missy elliots virus at the start of her song-'theres a mystery virus, theres gonna be some heavy breathing, wild dancing, hooty hooooo!' virus and if so can tamiflu help?

At 29/4/09 12:12 pm, Blogger Luke said...

Holy shit I was right!!


At 11/7/09 1:36 am, Anonymous doctor jack shephard said...

theres a lot of speculation concerning whether or not this is a regular influenze A strain or some new form of disease this earth has never seen before. i hate to go against you marty mars, but tamiflu is nolonger working against this virus, new strains are becoming resistant to the drug. Do you know what this means? The virus is evolving


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