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Tuesday, January 27, 2009

NZ Unemployment to hit 10%?

Currently we are looking to double our unemployment rate within 18months, the social impact of that alone is enough to keep you up at night, but I suspect the unemployment rate may be well over that when you consider so many of those NZers who have moved to Australia during the boom will be looking to flee back to NZ during the bust as Australia’s goldmine of digging anything out of the ground for China to melt ends abruptly. That desire to return for many NZers in such unstable times will be replayed globally as we face up to the reality that the banking community took Enron accounting to a new level of corporate greed and a first world consumer culture of SUVs, plasma TVs, cosmetic surgery and 3 rental properties all paid for on credit from the developing world may not have been the most stable of economic plans.

A flood of expats might offset a property collapse, but they may also swell unemployment to much higher levels as well.

15 Comments:

At 27/1/09 2:06 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I can only see a flood of expats coming back from Aussie as being an overwhelming force for good in NZ.

The people who went to aussie seeking their fortunes, whether it was for work in the mines or working in the east coast cities, are largely the self motivated who have previously seen their options for self improvement in NZ as being pretty limited.

These people won’t have gone to Aussie to lounge about on the dole, they’ll know the meaning of hard work, effort and reward – just what NZ needs an injection of right now.

 
At 27/1/09 3:01 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Don't give me that shit.
I don't know anybody who DOESN'T work hard here.

Just because we've stayed here and not hived off to Australia doesn't mean we don't know how to work.

NZ needs an injection of good leadership right now, and we're NOT getting it.

National /ACT / Maori are all very very quiet as to how they plan to tackle the looming recession , too quiet for my liking.

I suspect they don't have a clue where to start .

 
At 27/1/09 3:35 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't know anybody who DOESN'T work hard here.

Yeeeeeeah, that's right, their are no lazy or unemployable people in NZ.

Just because we've stayed here and not hived off to Australia doesn't mean we don't know how to work.

No one has said YOU don't work hard, got a guilty conscience or something?

Surely Even someone as thick as you can see that the people who were motivated enough to set themselves and their families up were they could do better for themselves are also going to be motivated to keep that up on their return to NZ?

NZ needs an injection of good leadership right now, and we're NOT getting it.

National /ACT / Maori are all very very quiet as to how they plan to tackle the looming recession , too quiet for my liking.

I suspect they don't have a clue where to start .


Yes so you keep repeating every chance you get like a record stuck on "retard". I don't see any suggestions coming from anyone else either, funny how Labour had no answers last October either, but lets not go there.

 
At 27/1/09 3:36 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It won't get to 10%, if it starts to get above 7 Mactional will just redefine half of the unemployed as non-entities and blame them for the failures of the market.

Only 34 months to go!

 
At 27/1/09 4:27 pm, Anonymous travellerev said...

If you want to know where John Key is coming from (literally) you might want to watch Money as debt and the Money Masters.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-9050474362583451279

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-515319560256183936

John Key is very much part of the Financial world (Yes he is even now) which is causing our economic meltdown.

He is not part of the solution he is part of our problem.

 
At 27/1/09 9:52 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Remember that John Key is a money trader and as the PM he has his finger on the pulse of the NZ dollar. Put 2 and 2 together, and smile all the way to the bank.

 
At 27/1/09 11:13 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Plasma TV's ???? Whats wrong with having a nice TV, mind you I have LCD.

Like computers and the net, new technology - love it.

If the anti-progress losers ran things we would still be living in caves.

The wheel and printing press were cutting edge in their day, the ludites were agiainst them as well, I admite the people who have the skill and imigination to move things forward.

Its taken 50 years for TV to move into the modern world - way to long.

 
At 28/1/09 5:08 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have a solution to solve this problem why do we not shut our boarders, produce enough food locally stop importing food we do not need and any left over send out for profit. I think if we promote the creation of goods on our shores there will not be as big problem as imports will have little impact on your economy... but some fuck wit in labour decided it would be a benefit to get a free trade agreement with China which will not benefit us till about 16 years from now while they can flood NZ with cheap crap nice one Helen!

serious though promotion of NZ made product would solve a lot of the problem we are a relatively small population with a lot of land that is fertile we can easily feed NZ a few times over... we should promote local farmers and growers to sell first to NZ second to the world.

 
At 28/1/09 5:13 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Also the introduction of secondary tax on all people who own two or more homes, these people should be taxed more as again what kind of fuck wit can live in two homes they are doing it out of greed so impose a 20 - 30 percent raise on local government tax on a second property or more making it more difficult to own two homes. With the extra money we could help people with out homes get homes adding to the over all wealth of the country....

 
At 28/1/09 5:18 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sorry last thing impose a congestion tax on families with more then two cars also... promote the use of public transport fix our fucked rail system, remove the fucken cost of nz borne people to go to university but impose on them a time based cost instead of financial cost, offer more welcoming packages for overseas kiwis to return home and work towards an Asia Pacific dollar, as most of the islands use the NZ dollar.

 
At 28/1/09 11:34 am, Blogger barvasfiend said...

Annnnd back to the "homecoming" of kiwis....

I don't think it's going to happen. Can't see why it would. Most of the people who moved to Australia to work in the mines do indeed make big money but many of them also have families and houses in Australia. There might be some younger Kiwis who come home, but I strongly suspect those Kiwis will do exactly what all the Aussies and south africans are doing in the same situation - paying as much off the mortgage as possible, consolidating their finances and looking for work in other industries (including the mining industry - they're still hiring!).

Basically, I suspect many of these expats see Australia as a better place to ride out a recession than New Zealand, and to be frank, in terms of wages for semi skilled work, it probably is.

I mean, what do they do if they come home? Buy a house in NZ? - they cost as much, if not more than in Australia, and they think they'll earn less.

 
At 28/1/09 12:00 pm, Blogger Bomber said...

I mean, what do they do if they come home? Buy a house in NZ? - they cost as much, if not more than in Australia, and they think they'll earn less.

In the last report on housing affordability Australia rated worse than NZ and all that money given to Australia by China for digging stuff out of the ground is ablout to plummet - add the effects of global warming and you have a country who will be facing much steeper decline of their economy than NZ, and in the face of this there will be a great demand to flee home.

 
At 28/1/09 12:44 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The people who go overseas to work are the ones with the drive and thus the skills and motivations where those who stay in NZ are generally lower skilled and uncompetitive.

Australia's economy is far stronger than ours. As to bombers assertion that NZers will come back when mining collapses what would they come back to, a country where the main export milk prices has collapsed.

I think bomber hasn't thought this one through.

 
At 28/1/09 12:51 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Australia's economy is far stronger than ours. As to bombers assertion that NZers will come back when mining collapses what would they come back to, a country where the main export milk prices has collapsed.

Australia's economy ISN'T stronger than ours for much longer

 
At 28/1/09 1:25 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

i hear theres a courier job going if anyones intrested?...
he woulda been better off on the dole that day!

 

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