Seachange
Shock poll: gap closes dramatically
National has shed seven percentage points in a shock poll which puts Labour trailing by just 3 per cent. The latest New Zealand Morgan Poll released today puts National's support at 40.5 per cent with Labour climbing 1 point to 37.5 per cent, from the last Morgan poll just over a fortnight ago. Today's poll puts the Greens on 9 per cent support, up 2.5 per cent, New Zealand First down one on 4 per cent, ACT up 2 to 3.5 per cent, the Maori Party and United Future up 0.5 per cent to 2 per cent and 1 per cent respectively.
PLUS this new Poll out from TV3 tonight...
National 45%
Labour 39%
Greens 6.8%
NZFirst 2.7%
Maori 2.5%
Act 1.8%
UF 0.1%
Prog 0.1%
SEACHANGE - say it with me folks - S-E-A-C-H-A-N-G-E - as we have been pointing out on Tumeke for some time this election will be closer than many Polls have been reckoning and Key’s TranzRail shares had a much larger impact on those Labour voters who had flirted with supporting National and they’ve gone either third party or have gone home to Helen. With the corporate meltdown who will NZers turn to? In America the champions of capitalism who have always attacked Government intervention ran screaming to the Government as soon as their toy popped. In NZ will NZers turn to the Party that is all about Government intervention or will they turn to the Party that makes love to the free market, the very same free market that has been so molested by corporate greed that it's exploded? I think National will get more votes on the night, but it will be up to Labour, the Greens and the Maori Party to prove they can put aside the bullshit and talk turkey, now because the Greens and the Maori Party HAVE NOT been talking about putting a legislative list to Labour to form a Government, the possibility of a Maori Party/National Party coalition can not be ruled out and is still a strong possibility, the only threat to that possible partnership are the National Party supporters themselves.
posted by Bomber @ 6:45 pm
38 comments
38 Comments:
i dont vote but i see it kinda like this. is everything affordable(within reason), are you well fed, safe enough and secure. is your tax rate enough for you to affford to survive?
then why change? what in gods name is national reallllly going to change? its going to be more of the same, but slowly business leaders and the wealthy will come out on top and labour will come back in and take it all back and the cycle will probably continue forever!
You're a short term thinker. The cycle keeps cycling but, as Martin Luther King Jnr put it, " the arc of history is long but it points towards Justice.
The trend has always been to the left and social capital.
Get your arse into gear and vote. The longer the left can sustain, the more the right loses it's fear of a cooperative society. Western democracies have been through a savage right wing phase, the debris of which lies all around us. It would be a shame if NZ took a lurch to the right just when the rest were about to swing the other way.
Big Deal. Even if you really think opinion polls count, then the govt will be either tweedledee or tweedledum. Sorry, can't get excited about that. Bomber may have turned into a Labour apologist but some of us have moved on. Oh, and case you hadn't noticed, capitalism is collapsing...
Bomber's continued nonsense about Labour being 'left wing' is just comical. When did left wing mean pursuing free market policies?
Big Deal. Even if you really think opinion polls count, then the govt will be either tweedledee or tweedledum. Sorry, can't get excited about that. Bomber may have turned into a Labour apologist but some of us have moved on. Oh, and case you hadn't noticed, capitalism is collapsing...
I don't vote labour so being an apologist is a nonesense statment, I'm calling it like it is, the Tranzrail share fiasco really has dented John Key and in the current corporate meltdown people will look at which party is pro Government intevention or is pro free market and will chose on that basis. And yes we are noticing that capitalism is collapsing, we've been pointing that out fopr some time on Tumeke and it is because it it collapsing that will focus the mind of voters.
Bomber's continued nonsense about Labour being 'left wing' is just comical. When did left wing mean pursuing free market policies?
Will Labour privatise Kiwibank? Will Labour privatise the Prisons, TVNZ, ACC? National will sell them in their second term - in that light Labour is 'left wing' in comparison and that equation is one that voters are looking at right now so these Poll results will go even further to the 'left'.
Not even the standard is giving much credibility to a single poll.
Ever heard of something called a trend bomber?
No, I thought not.
LOL
No bomber as you like to claim when the price of oil goes down this poll is simply a 'fluctuation' and in no way represents a seachange.
Bomber is a blatant Labour apologist in countless blogs, Even using a youtube clip authorised by the Labour Party! So whether or not he votes Labour is irrelevant.
"Bomber is a blatant Labour apologist in countless blogs"
Yeah, ever since he betrayed his friends in the activist community he's been condemned as a traitor and quisling.
These pro labour posts only confirm that view despite his protestations that he's not a labour voter.
It's more like 3 polls. The two yesterday, plus the Herald's poll "from Kaitaia to Bluff" reported on September 27th, showing National on 43.5% - their lowest showing all years.
In typical Orwellian fashion, the NZ Herald described National's worse result all year as "Swinging to the Right".... but in hindsight is the first of three polls showing a downward trend for National.
Oh gee so the left is now taking the herald's poll seriously now?
Not even the standard is giving much credibility to a single poll.
Ever heard of something called a trend bomber?
No, I thought not.
It's not one Poll, it was three Polls, the Herald's one man Poll. it was the TV3 Poll and it was the Roy Morgan Poll. Ever heard of a trend Bomber - yes, I think he has, you claim it was one Poll when it's three, ever heard of a trend Anon?
LOL
No bomber as you like to claim when the price of oil goes down this poll is simply a 'fluctuation' and in no way represents a seachange.
Goodness that is desperate, do Nat supporters always get this desperate when suddenly on the ropes? What does his posts on the oil price fluctuations and peak oil predictions have to do with three Polls showing National Party vote collapsing?
Bomber is a blatant Labour apologist in countless blogs, Even using a youtube clip authorised by the Labour Party! So whether or not he votes Labour is irrelevant.
Bomber has attacked Labour constatntly on their Ahmed Zaoui position, stealing Maori land and imprisoning his mate for sedition, trying to paint him out as an apologist is simply bullshit, he doesn't even vote Labour, but because he posted a clip from the standard that makes him the Labour Party President? Get a better line of attack.
"Bomber is a blatant Labour apologist in countless blogs"
Yeah, ever since he betrayed his friends in the activist community he's been condemned as a traitor and quisling.
These pro labour posts only confirm that view despite his protestations that he's not a labour voter.
Ever since Bomber had a problem with activists picking up guns he has become a labour party apologist? Really? Ridiculous claim by fringe people who need to understand guns don't have a place in democratic systems like NZ.
DW
Oil was last at $US77.70 at barrel on the NY mercantile exchange Bomber.
So is this a trend or a fluctuation?
I suspect we won't be hearing from Bomber about this for a long time.
Egg .. on.. face maybe
More like double whopper on face.
"It's not one Poll, it was three Polls, the Herald's one man Poll."
Even the reporter who did the one man poll admitted it wasn't scientific and thus could not be relied upon.
Try again. Douchebag.
Oil was last at $US77.70 at barrel on the NY mercantile exchange Bomber.
So is this a trend or a fluctuation?
I suspect we won't be hearing from Bomber about this for a long time.
Egg .. on.. face maybe
As I have blogged several times anon, the price fluctaution of oil has been well traversed when put into peak oil predictions...
How Periodic Are the Oil Price Fluctuations?
The amplitude of the big slide in oil prices from $75 to $61 was a little bit a surprise for everybody. I'm trying to answer the following question: is this big drop significant or simply a consequence of a very volatile market?
There are some cycles in oil price fluctuations. For instance, the seasonal fluctuations in oil demand or even the change of oil contract at the end of each month. On top of that, there is the usual chaos of geopolitical events, Hurricanes, etc.. The objective is to see if we can apply the Periodicity Transform in order to capture eventual cycles and get an idea of future oil market volatility.
Peak Oil Update - August 2008: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers
An update on the latest production numbers from the EIA along with graphs/charts of different oil production forecasts.
More like double whopper on face.
I don't eat burger king
"It's not one Poll, it was three Polls, the Herald's one man Poll."
Even the reporter who did the one man poll admitted it wasn't scientific and thus could not be relied upon.
Try again. Douchebag.
Weren't you claiming there was only one poll when you said Not even the standard is giving much credibility to a single poll.
- you weren't aware that there were actually two polls when you posted that were you Anon because you wouldn't try and claim that there aren't two polls out on the same day that back up the Herald uncientific one man poll would you? I think as a Nat supporter you need a better line of attack than 'it's only one poll' you need to accept what we've been telling you and that is National won't get over 45% on the day and that you need to start polishing up on your Maori protocol.
That 'Oil Drum' website uses fancy statistics of dubious actual value.
Otherwise the latest significant drop in price wouldn't have been such a suprise.
That 'Oil Drum' website uses fancy statistics of dubious actual value.
Like?
"Like?"
Have a look at any of the graphs. All they do is show us what has already happened. What is relevant is what will happen in the future, but this can't be predicted because there are way too many variables affecting the price of oil.
Have a look at any of the graphs. All they do is show us what has already happened. What is relevant is what will happen in the future, but this can't be predicted because there are way too many variables affecting the price of oil.
But you can see that their predictions of volatile price fluctuations are based on some hefty reserach on their behalf while all you have done is attacke bomber repeatedly for using this example.
DW
The point is it doesn't take hefty research to know that the oil price will fluctuate!
And all this hefty research can't predict the extent or direction of future fluctuations anyway.
BULLSHIT - say it with me folks - B-U-L-L-S-H-I-T.
The only Seachange is in Bombers opinion everytime a new poll comes out. A few weeks ago Bomber and his syncophants were telling us all about the "seachange", thena new poll came out, Helen got scared of Winstons dirt, and Bomber was saying something like - 'I think John Key just won the election'.
Now it's seachange time again because of a couple of polls, after One News' poll tonight putting National at 51%, will Bomber be back to predicting doom and gloom under a National government because people have been duped by the evil John Key?
Who knows, all we can count on is Bomber changing his tune a few more times before election day.
BULLSHIT - say it with me folks - B-U-L-L-S-H-I-T.
You sound scared Pro National supporter, very scared, perhaps you bought your own hype and thought a National victory would be a sleep walk?
The only Seachange is in Bombers opinion everytime a new poll comes out. A few weeks ago Bomber and his syncophants were telling us all about the "seachange", thena new poll came out, Helen got scared of Winstons dirt, and Bomber was saying something like - 'I think John Key just won the election'.
He said 'I think John Key just won the election' he didn't say John Key just won it did he? He predicted a sea change back to Labour and he has again.
Now it's seachange time again because of a couple of polls, after One News' poll tonight putting National at 51%, will Bomber be back to predicting doom and gloom under a National government because people have been duped by the evil John Key?
You will have also noted H=Guy himself said he didn't believe the One Poll was reflecting what is actually happening, or didn't you watch past the headline?
Who knows, all we can count on is Bomber changing his tune a few more times before election day.
Or be a National Party toady in defence mode and post anonymously trying to detract from the fact that you are getting a kicking in the polls perhaps?
Bobo claims he is not even a labour voter so why the fuck is he giving helen such a hardout rimjob.
Why do pro national people always take it to a grubby sexual level? Why do they do that all the time? How can someone who was against Labour on Zaoui, against Labour on foreshore and seabed, against Labour over imprisoning his mate for sedition be giving labour a 'rimjob'?
It's not often you see such blatent duplicity.
You are referring to your post?
What a disgrace.
Indeed, your post is a disgrace
You sound scared Pro National supporter, very scared, perhaps you bought your own hype and thought a National victory would be a sleep walk
What are you on about?
"He said 'I think John Key just won the election' he didn't say John Key just won it did he?
Thank you Captain Obvious What is your point?
He predicted a sea change back to Labour and he has again.
Spin it how you like, little syncophant, he changes his tune on this 'seachange' business everytime time there is a new poll or things are looking bad for Labour. It's hardly a "prediction" if you change your mind all the time depending on which way the wind blows.
You will have also noted H=Guy himself said he didn't believe the One Poll was reflecting what is actually happening, or didn't you watch past the headline?
So? Either the Colmar Brunton have used correct polling methods and it is accurate, or they haven't, and if this is the case lets see your evidence.
Or be a National Party toady in defence mode and post anonymously trying to detract from the fact that you are getting a kicking in the polls perhaps?
You are posting anonymously yourself you cretinous burk. Just think for a moment how much of a wanker you must be to sneer at someone else for posting anonymously.
Leaving the latest One News poll aside for the moment - National are still ahead of Labour in the 3 News poll and Morgan poll, still the single most popular party in these polls you so badly want to believe, Despite all the advantages of incumbancy Labour are still only on 36%.
So tell us how this a "kicking" for National, you Labour loving flake.
"He said 'I think John Key just won the election' he didn't say John Key just won it did he?
Thank you Captain Obvious What is your point?
Well the 'point' is that Bomber didn't say National would win, he said he thought John Key had just won the election based on Key's handling of the Winston issue, which was after his call that a seachange had occurred once NZers had heard what was on the cocktail party tapes.
He predicted a sea change back to Labour and he has again.
Spin it how you like, little syncophant, he changes his tune on this 'seachange' business everytime time there is a new poll or things are looking bad for Labour. It's hardly a "prediction" if you change your mind all the time depending on which way the wind blows.
Well no, you said he had claimed John Key had won when his exact words were 'might have just won' Bomber aknowledged that Key had done a good job, that hardly makes him blow in the wind, or change his mind - he is actually pretty spot on at the moment and that's why I like to read tumeke.
So? Either the Colmar Brunton have used correct polling methods and it is accurate, or they haven't, and if this is the case lets see your evidence.
THE LAST ELECTION! They were 5 points off and that's why Guy had to actually say he didn't think their own Poll reflected what was happening on the ground.
You are posting anonymously yourself you cretinous burk. Just think for a moment how much of a wanker you must be to sneer at someone else for posting anonymously.
Hey you're a National Party teenage supporter right? You're a kid yes because I have difficulty assuming from that little paragraph that you are an adult.
Leaving the latest One News poll aside for the moment - National are still ahead of Labour in the 3 News poll and Morgan poll, still the single most popular party in these polls you so badly want to believe, Despite all the advantages of incumbancy Labour are still only on 36%.
And the name of this post is? Seachange and that's what Roy and TV3 Polls show a seachange with National dropping heavily and you do know this is an mmp election where coalition partners will decide who is the government, you do know that right?
So tell us how this a "kicking" for National, you Labour loving flake.
1: I don't vote for Labour
2: National drop 7 points in two polls and that's not a kicking? Again, you're a young nat right?
DW
At last we have a decent labour fuck knuckle to defend bomber.
Welcome aboard DW.
Keep on towing that 'I don't vote for labour but..." line.
Everybody knows who owns you.
At last we have a decent labour fuck knuckle to defend bomber.
Welcome aboard DW.
Keep on towing that 'I don't vote for labour but..." line.
Everybody knows who owns yo
Such anger - you are a teenager right? I'm not red, I'm green, but your desperate need to paint me out as Labour is amusing.
DW
I'm not red, I'm green,
Ah, so you vote for one of Labour's bitches! What is it like like being Helen's footstool?
Hey you're a National Party teenage supporter right? You're a kid yes because I have difficulty assuming from that little paragraph that you are an adult.
Have you ever heard of hypocrisy? No? you should look it up in the dictionary and then ponder what it means to sneer at anonymous posters while posting anonymously.
The green are to labour are what Beth Heke was to Jake the Muss, a punching bag who try to defend their master no matter what.
Given this it is entirely possible that DW is a green supporter, since he has all the characteristics of a subordinate tow-the-labour-line-no-matter-what battered wife syndrome.
Ah, so you vote for one of Labour's bitches! What is it like like being Helen's footstool?
Hold onj a second ago you were telling everyone I was Labour because you assumed it, now you are making more assumptions, based on the Greens opening comments about coke mum and pepsi dad it seems you have taken your assumptions beyond my voting preferences to the entire Green Party as well.
Have you ever heard of hypocrisy? No? you should look it up in the dictionary and then ponder what it means to sneer at anonymous posters while posting anonymously.
Wow, so angry, the teenage thing was a raw nerve huh? I leave my initals on each of my posts while you hide behind anonymous posts, the situation isn't so much hypocracy as tedious Anon.
The green are to labour are what Beth Heke was to Jake the Muss, a punching bag who try to defend their master no matter what.
Given this it is entirely possible that DW is a green supporter, since he has all the characteristics of a subordinate tow-the-labour-line-no-matter-what battered wife syndrome.
Again Anon, I think that you need to read the Greens opening addresses at their launch, I don't see any Beth Heke in those comments. I do wonder like Bomber does however how you Nat supporters might handle a coalition with the Maori Party?
Look at the Emissions bill, the greens didn't even have enough pull to get the changes they wanted. Instead they had to get on their knees and open their mouths wide open.
I guess that's the price of being close to power, debasement and humiliation.
Well that is certainly your interpretation of events,
Are you REALLY happy with what the greens have managed to get out of Labour? I would be pretty pissed if I had voted green and had to watch them continually taken for granted the way they have been by Labour in the past couple of years
But if you, as a green supporter, are happy with it, I guess that goes to show why Labour continues to walk all over your party: The greens have no back bone.
your hatred though suggests you need some anger management sessions.
Do you read palms as well doing psychoanalysis of anonymous blogging?
Most people would have a hatred of being abused, taken for granted and being used by their partners.
As a green support you do not, in fact it appears to be a normal relationship dynamic in your opinion.
So you are telling us that WE have problems?
Look at the Emissions bill, the greens didn't even have enough pull to get the changes they wanted. Instead they had to get on their knees and open their mouths wide open.
I guess that's the price of being close to power, debasement and humiliation.
What is it with these Nat supporters and their fixation on blowjobs, rimjobs and homophobic metaphors?
Are you REALLY happy with what the greens have managed to get out of Labour? I would be pretty pissed if I had voted green and had to watch them continually taken for granted the way they have been by Labour in the past couple of years
But if you, as a green supporter, are happy with it, I guess that goes to show why Labour continues to walk all over your party: The greens have no back bone.
A Billion dollars to insulate homes, show me another minor party that got a billion dollars out of Labour?
Do you read palms as well doing psychoanalysis of anonymous blogging?
Palm reading would have more going for it than pschoanalysising your anger Anon.
Most people would have a hatred of being abused, taken for granted and being used by their partners.
As a green support you do not, in fact it appears to be a normal relationship dynamic in your opinion.
So you are telling us that WE have problems?
Again it's either homophobic metaphors, once were warriors metaphors or domestic violence metaphors, what do you Nat supporters get up to in your spare time?
DW
A Billion dollars to insulate homes, show me another minor party that got a billion dollars out of Labour?
Who are you trying to convince that this is some major coup for the greens? Yourself? Do you really think that Labour would thrown Greens that bone if there wasn't votes in it for Labour too?
What about the Emissions? look how quick the greens folded on that little number - it should have been a major non negotiable demand for the Greens seeing as how they are all about the environment, here was there one chance to prove that the environment comes first, and what do they do? Let Labour do what ever they want to.
And you can bet that when times start getting really tough with the financial crisis, the ETS will be the first thing to go out the window, whether the greens want it or not. You have proven with your comments about the billion for home insulation that it doesn't take too much to shut the greens up.
Palm reading would have more going for it than pschoanalysising your anger Anon.
Thanks for proving my point.
Who are you trying to convince that this is some major coup for the greens? Yourself? Do you really think that Labour would thrown Greens that bone if there wasn't votes in it for Labour too?
Please point out another party that was abl;e to get a billion dollar concession out of Labour, you were claiming that the Greens sucked, rimjobbed, took dick, whatever charming homophobic choice of language you require and I've simply pointed out the billion dollars the Greens did get out of Labour, NOW you claim that was just a bone, pretty big bone, please show another party that managed that please Anon?
What about the Emissions? look how quick the greens folded on that little number - it should have been a major non negotiable demand for the Greens seeing as how they are all about the environment, here was there one chance to prove that the environment comes first, and what do they do? Let Labour do what ever they want to.
Ahhh, I think you are confused, the billion dollars was over the Emissions Trading Scheme.
And you can bet that when times start getting really tough with the financial crisis, the ETS will be the first thing to go out the window, whether the greens want it or not. You have proven with your comments about the billion for home insulation that it doesn't take too much to shut the greens up.
Your initial homophobic points were that the Greens sucked, licked, swallowed Labour and got nothing, please show me another party that was able to get a billion out of Labour - why can't you do that Anon?
Thanks for proving my point.
That you are an angry closet homophobe?
DW
Actually no that was me and I am gay.
Really? Why would a gay person use such hompohobic language? Do you have a lot of self hate Anon? I know a lot of gay people and they never use sexualized language the way you do, are you really gay Anon or are you a bit embarrssed at getting cuaght out using homophobic language? I think it's the latter isn't it Anon?
Do you hate homosexuals DW?
Not at all love them a lot.
Are you a bigot?
Certainly not
Maybe you should join family first or destiney church.
I think you mean Destiny Church?
DW
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