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Thursday, October 30, 2008

PM odds narrow: as predicted

A fortnight ago I urged Labour supporters to jump in - to back Clark at the bookies:

Now Centrebet has her coming in to $3.40 and Key sliding out to $1.31.

It's really more like even money on the two because of the Winston factor. I suspect they got the election result wrong last time for the same reason that Clark was so unrealistically valued two weeks ago - because a lot of over-confident Tories have laid some big bets that the Nats will cobble something together. That is quite an ask.


At 30/10/08 1:17 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

gee, this is SUCH a scientific way to poll - NOT.
All it takes is one person with loads of disposable income to lay a large bet, the odds are skewed and hey presto, more poll driven results.
A household watching its pennies is hardly likely to go wasting money on betting on election results.
I'm with winston on this issue, all polls should be banned a few weeks out from an election, forget about them and focus on issues


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