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Monday, September 29, 2008

TV3 Poll: Analysis


TV3 reporting a 13 percentage point gap between the two main parties. I would be shocked if the election night gap is over 10%. There's still quite a few undecided voters in the margins.

As we thought, the PM has taken a hit from protecting Winston and Key has scraped through (or will likely scrape through in later polls) from any serious damage vis a vis his Tranzrail 2003 share deals. I suspect Key will continue to have less negatives than Clark - I don't think that will change around, but it's the positives that Key hasn't got a footing on yet. He still hasn't been seen to be acting Prime Ministerially yet - and that is going to show during the one-on-ones with Clark. She will run rings around him. She is vulnerable to a trust stab via Winston - and Key will and should use it.

So, whatever Winston threatens Clark with it must be worth the personal hit she's taking and ultimately the loss of few of Labour's party votes. NZ First pulls 3% in this survey. Clark must expect NZ First to clear the 5% threshold or her investment - her lines of credit given to Winston with a stiff interest rate of public disgust - would yield nothing but the keys to the Opposition wing. It's an all or nothing one way bet on Winston. There is no countervailing investment in the political spectrum. Labour have been acutely hostile to the Maori Party when they should have been seeking soft issues to co-operate on, to build... trust. So too the Green Party - they have always been neglected and the line from frog blog about their perception of Labour runs from the scathing to the septic.

3 Comments:

At 29/9/08 7:42 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

As always, TV3's colour coding makes no sense.

 
At 29/9/08 11:36 am, Anonymous Aj said...

Winston has nothing over Clark, he's only still there because the threshold Clark set for firing him has not quite been met.
She has a track record of being very loyal to a minister with a storm swirling around him. Look at the flak she got for hanging onto Field until such time it became completely untenable. Apart from the politcal damage being sustained I'm not sure why she should be criticised for loyalty and consistency. These traits are in short supply in politics.

 
At 29/9/08 4:59 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Winston has nothing over Clark, he's only still there because the threshold Clark set for firing him has not quite been met.
She has a track record of being very loyal to a minister with a storm swirling around him. Look at the flak she got for hanging onto Field until such time it became completely untenable. Apart from the politcal damage being sustained I'm not sure why she should be criticised for loyalty and consistency. These traits are in short supply in politics.


Either you are living in a different NZ to the rest of us are you are actually mentally unhinged.

Have you ever heard of David Benson Pope? How loyal was Helen to him?
How about Dover Samuel? DO I need to go on or are really that entrenched in your idolatry of Clark?

 

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