The Maori Seven's game

The Maori Party certainly don't believe there'll be an October 18 election. Their national campaign launch and AGM has been confirmed for Saturday 4 October in Hamilton. If the general election is 8 November this would mean an election date announcement (and the start of the campaign proper) would be proclaimed the weekend or week before. Not a bad pick.

Launching the campaign in the heart of Tainui is also an aggressive move - and a smart one. Nanaia Mahuta (no.10 on the list) has been able to deliver (or really have delivered for her by Cullen) Treaty deals over the Waikato river and a few spare million for education to Tainui. Labour has sunk a lot of political capital into the Waikato. If Labour loses all the Maori seats they know it will be an expensive struggle to ever get them back again. Mahuta is probably Labour's best hope. She is up against Angeline Greensill who stood against her last time round. She didn't make much of an impact from what I remember of the 2005 contest. My impression at the time was that she came across as bitter rather than just critical.

The second best hope for Labour to stop a complete rout is the Southern electorate Te Tai Tonga where Mahara Okeroa (in a perilous no. 40 list position) will face lawyer Rahui Katene. She was very meek and performed weakly on a Marae TV interview a few weeks ago, and based on that I would expect her to struggle to pull past Okeroa. Relying on a swing to the Maori Party across the board may not help in an electorate where the incumbent has had access to electorate resources and the larger Labour Party to sustain his presence and reach (it is a gigantic electorate - the entire South Island and a bit of Wellington). The other advantage that Okeroa has is that his last opponent and the one slated to take him on again, the well respected and well known Monte Ohia, passed away suddenly a couple of months ago and they had to scramble to fill the position.

The third best hope for Labour is that Parekura Horomia (no. 5 on the list) will fend off Broadcasting veteran Derek Fox in Ikaroa Rawhiti like he did the last time they met in 1999 - when he pipped him by under a thousand votes. As with Mahuta, Horomia - especially as a cabinet minister - has been able to advance (thanks to Cullen) certain remedies for his patch that others may not have gained. The Foreshore and Seabed confiscation compromise with Ngati Porou to co-manage some areas of coastline has been successfully branded a "win-win" for them and the Crown. The deal met with little resistance amongst Ngati Porou who have a reputation for collaboration in order to maintain some form of territorial integrity. But with the full backing of the Maori Party the former Mayor of Wairoa must be favoured to win. While Fox's media activities give him a high profile they must impact on his time spent in the electorate - I think he's based in Auckland.

Fox may also be helped by the neighbouring Waiariki electorate of Te Ururoa Flavell who have set 70% as their electorate vote goal. It would make sense to send party workers into the marginals rather than let them concentrate on winning huge majorities for the incumbents in the safe seats (ie. the ones they hold now.).

I see no threat at all for Hone Harawira in Te Tai Tokerau. Not least because in the long term he will not be challenged by Shane Jones because of a gentlemen's agreement struck between the related MPs some time ago never to stand against each other. I see no threat to Dr Pita Sharples in Tamaki Makaurau either - and Louisa Wall's flagging the electorate vote in favour of the party vote (instead of demanding of her constituents both ticks) has seen the party machine drop the bright new star to a precarious no. 43 on the Labour list. This will inspire her to fight even harder for the party vote and eschew the electorate one.

Then there's Tariana Turia. The Te Tai Hauauru MP is rock solid - despite being rather dismal at Te Reo Maori. Her mana comes from her positions and principles rather than her pronunciation or pedigree. As a co-leader with the more Pakeha-friendly Pita Sharples they present the authentic voice of Maori political leadership. Well the whole caucus do - they seem a very cohesive team.

Labour's Maori MPs are hamstrung by the fact they are pledged to support a Pakeha party that has sold their own people into economic and judicial second class citizenship. Horomia is waffling, blabbering yes man, Shane Jones is a pompous light-weight, Mahuta is a bureaucratic tool and who has even heard of Mahara Okeroa? Why anyone on the Maori roll would vote for Labour in the electorate is beyond my understanding.

The Marae digipoll results are on the TVNZ website, but may be from last election - it is unclear. What's on the show tomorrow is also unclear because the site is a mess.