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Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Oh so Global Warming is happening?


Hotter, wetter, drier, frost-free
Hot, dry Auckland summers, a wetter West Coast and plummeting frost-days await us if the latest climate change predictions come true. The predictions were included in National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research's latest climate change report, released yesterday. It uses new data and draws on far more climate models than the previous report in 2004. It bases the predictions on the mid-range of expected ongoing greenhouse gas emissions, and draws its predictions out to the end of this century. It states an unusually warm year today could be classed as very cold by the end of the century. The expected 2C rise across the country is likely to coincide with a predominantly westerly wind, bringing more rain to the west and leaving less for the east. Frost days have already fallen across the country, with 20 fewer frosts per year today in the Canterbury and Marlborough regions than there were in the 1970s. They could fall further, with the Central Plateau's 30-40 frost days expected to reduce to 5-15 days. Auckland's hot days of 25C or more could triple from about 21 now to more than 60 - and that's only under a low-medium emission scenario. Under a medium-high scenario there could be a staggering 80 or more days hotter than 25C. That's enough hot days for almost all three months of summer.

Oh so global warming is happening – help me out here folks, we’ve got a chunk from the right wing who are telling us that Global Warming is a myth, and here we are having to prepare for the consequences of global warming, personally seeing the speed with which climate change is occurring right now, these predictions are optimistic – the reality suggests that climate change will be abrupt as in 10years from climate we see now to the kind of climate that can ruin your civilization. While we tepidly acknowledge change we refuse to make the changes to our economy that are necessary for us to have any credible voice on the global stage the way we had with universal suffrage, nuclear power and whaling. I’m afraid we can’t have it both ways, by accepting that there is going to be change we can’t then simply ignore our role in that change.

14 Comments:

At 28/5/08 7:08 am, Anonymous Legio X said...

As NIWA don't seem to be able to get the weather right for the next week I will take with a large grain of salt their predictions for 50 years time.

As Bo ber and other GW fundamentalists scrabble for anything to back up their increasingly whack predictions they still haven't answered the question

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Why did the IPPC computer models fail to predict the '10 year' cooling period?

You'd think if their models were so great then they would have seen this years ago, but they didn't.

Increasingly real scientists are coming out with reservations about these models which are the basis for the GW industry that we see today.

 
At 28/5/08 7:28 am, Anonymous travellerev said...

You know Bomber,

I was a fierce global warming "believer" and I have had the luck to move to New Zealand a few years ago which gave me the option to live on a farm with a little land and I live what is called a sustainable lifestyle, Perma culture garden, chooks Kunekune and a beehive, the full wax. I drive my car (Old banger) as little as possible and I have never felt richer in my life. I will continue to live like this no matter what the future hold weather wise but I have become a bit sceptic about what causes the hot house effect. With the coldest winters in a century on the Northern Hemisphere and the driest summer since 10 on the west coast where I live. I just don't know any more. So I'm going to be sitting on the fence on that one for a bit. A sustainable fence, but a fence never the less.

 
At 28/5/08 7:38 am, Anonymous little trev said...

Trollio don't you still support exxon-mobil funded groups that twist NZ scienctists research?

 
At 28/5/08 7:49 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Models referenced by the IPCC predict long term trends, not short-term variability.

This article over at RealClimate is a good read on the subject.

 
At 28/5/08 8:35 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is global warming a real, man-made phenomenon?

The consensus is yes, but only time will tell for sure.

How about being cautious in the mean time?

 
At 28/5/08 9:32 am, Blogger Mr Grinch said...

"With the coldest winters in a century on the Northern Hemisphere and the driest summer since 10 on the west coast where I live. I just don't know any more. So I'm going to be sitting on the fence on that one for a bit. A sustainable fence, but a fence never the less."

Global warming is all about weather extremities as well. The planet heating puts a lot of the planets cycles and ecosystems out of sync, and doesn't only result in hotter, drier weather.

 
At 28/5/08 10:17 am, Anonymous travellerev said...

There was a time in medieval Europe when it was so hot that they could actually grow grapes in Sweden and I don't think we had that much influence at that time being only 500 million or so. And I remember vividly when my father took the ford station wagon in the early sixties for a spin over a thick layer of ice with us children on the sled behind it. This was on semi salt water ice. Again I live sustainable, but find it really hard to make up my mind.

 
At 28/5/08 11:23 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I believe that we have some serious impact on our environment, whether it's as bad as people make out I'm not sure... What I would like to know, however, is if the Government start putting additional costs on goods and services to cover the ecological consequences of these services - how many more kids are going to go to school without breakfast? How many more families will be having to live 3 or 4 people to a room? etc etc... You get my drift?

NS

 
At 28/5/08 11:36 am, Blogger Nepenthe said...

NS - How many people will have to move away from the coast? How many people will have their homes destroyed by extreme weather? How much food will not be produced due to drought?

The climate has fluctuated many times in the past but scientists can most of the time correlate this to changes in C02 conc. its not hard to think that the climate will change again with the amount of C02 we are pumping into the atmos.

Legio don't even argue this anymore you've shown how you can completely make up facts regarding this. Like when you said the arctic was 14million square kms when its actaully around 4million.

 
At 28/5/08 12:17 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

ah well, my home town has the solution - base a big chunk of our economy around racing V8's - now THAT'S farsighted. NOT.

 
At 28/5/08 2:44 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"How many people will have to move away from the coast? How many people will have their homes destroyed by extreme weather? How much food will not be produced due to drought?"

I have no idea ... do you? I'm not talking about the long term effects, I think that whether it's human made global warming or if it's the earth going through natural cycles, things are changing. It's not going to help people already struggling to lump them with more bills and I really don't think it's going to change the outcome of our present ecological dilemna by increasing the financial pressure these, already struggling, people are under. Do you think that's fair?

As helendickhead pointed out at one point, I don't have a problem buying my cheese for my dinner parties, but I do care about others who are struggling. I've been there on the DPB for five years in a state house - it's hard for some people to get out.

NS

 
At 28/5/08 9:23 pm, Anonymous Legio X said...

Legio don't even argue this anymore you've shown how you can completely make up facts regarding this. Like when you said the arctic was 14million square kms when its actaully around 4million.

Nepenthe, an apology is what a real human would do.

Are you real?

Models referenced by the IPCC predict long term trends, not short-term variability.

Yes and those models are being shown to be more and more dodgy.

In the meantime, with people like Bo ber and Nepenthe screaming from the sidelines, our elected representatives are committing US to billions in 'carbon taxes' etc and more billions forcing business and private consumers to change their way of living entirely based on some computer projections that appear to have major flaws.

I am extremely suspicious that never in the past have any of these learnt fellows or their shrieking acolytes even suggested that there may be 'cooling periods' of up to a decade yet all of a sudden that's whats happening and glib cover stories start appearing to explain it.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation seems likely to be one of the major contributors to the phenomenon Bo ber and other GW fundamentalists label Global Warming.

 
At 29/5/08 3:17 pm, Blogger Nepenthe said...

O.K. Lego fair point. We were talking about two different numbers it seems. I apologise. But it is the minimum sea ice extent that is important, not so much the maximum. As ice reflects much of the sun light and water absorbs much more it is the ice in the summer months that have the greatest effect on the Arctic's energy balance. I wonder lego if you will apologise for all the horrible insults you have spieled on this blog. Not likely. Are you for real? As for the models i have never referred to them. I study science at university. I have yet to come across a single science lecturer that isn't convinced of global warming. There is an overwhelming scientific concensus on global warming, you can't argue this point. A few russian physicists working for oil companies does not constitute some huge scientific debate on global warming. All this is not just based on a few computer models. It is based on a huge amount of empirical evidence. What a lot of lay people can't get with science is that you can't prove a theory. You can only provide supporting evidence and see if it makes accurate predictions.

PDO? Really Legio you can believe this theory with no prescribed mechanism yet you can't believe global warming with a mechanism and a huge amount of empirical evidence. Are you just plucking out theories to reinforce your view of the world? A scientific theory is useless without a mechanism to explain it.

 
At 30/5/08 7:11 am, Blogger rangi said...

it doesn't take a climate change scientist to know that pumping shit into the atmosphere is the cause of global warming. wake up!!

 

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