I am becoming increasingly suspicious of dodgy polls, and here is the latest –
Budget fails to do the trick for the Government
Labour's tax-cutting Budget has had no immediate impact on its poll rating in today's Herald-DigiPoll survey, the first major poll that includes a large post-Budget sample. The economy has moved into top spot as the issue most likely to influence voters in this year's election, just nudging out tax cuts, which is the second most important issue. Labour has moved down one point to 36.2 per cent but National has also moved down fractionally, by 0.6 to 51.5. The gap between the two main parties has barely budged from last month's poll: 15.3 points, compared with 14.9 last month. National would still be able to govern alone. National leader John Key continues to poll just ahead of Helen Clark as preferred prime minister, 44.6 per cent to 42.3 per cent.
Ok, here are the problems with these Polls - they don’t call cell phones (it’s cheaper that way) and so they create an automatic filter that doesn’t catch the younger more mobile electorate, they never take into account the Maori Party will probably win 7 seats through the Maori Seats, they rarely show the don’t know, in this latest case it is 13% and anything over a 3% margin of error is considered pointless and the second part of this Poll that showed a drop was 4.6% - add to this that a large chunk of the electorate don’t know an election is on this year all add up to me for results that are highly questionable, interestingly talking to some Labour Party insiders their UMR polling is showing nothing near the numbers being spat out by some at the moment.