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Tuesday, March 18, 2008

The R word

Large numbers of immigrants + Local population + Recession = Racism.

That's usually how it works. Everything's fine - on the surface - until an economic slump occurs whereby competition intensifies over scarce resources (esp. jobs, govt. assistance and housing) resulting in animosity between competing groups, viz: the local born (or well-integrated non-identifiably immigrant/foreign) population and the foreign-born (or more readily identifiably immigrant/foreign) population.

NZ since the recession of '91-'92, has had rapid immigration growth esp. of people not Maori or European. That time has been marked by modest economic growth. I have argued in the past that it was the immigration itself that has largely contributed to that growth. My question is what happens if that stops? Do the recent immigrants without deep roots here go to Australia (as they have been doing in increasing numbers already)? Or do they return to their country of origin (as some of the more wealthy may have done as they have good connexions and family)? Or do they stay on in NZ?

I would say any decrease - substantial decrease - in immigration rates will flow through to lower housing prices very quickly, then after that will come an economic slow-down as consumption drops. If we are hit by a world-wide recession as well we could be in more trouble than soaring diary prices can solve. My concern is that these financial aspects will have repercussions at the social level. We are in uncharted territory here. Having had contact with many different walks of life while imprisoned I was struck by the virrulent racism of many provincial people and that affect could come through into the cities if the situation became acute.

9 Comments:

At 19/3/08 3:02 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Ninety per cent of our customers on the Auckland-Shanghai route are Mandarin speaking and we felt it was essential the majority of our crew could communicate in Mandarin with our customers."

REPLY TO LIMITED ENTRY CONCERNS OF DAVID DO PRESIDENT OF AUSA.

MAORI AND PACIFIC ISLANDERS AND STUDENTS FROM A DISADVANTAGED SOCIO-ECONOMIC BACKGROUND AND MATURE STUDENTS OVER 20 OTHERWISE WITHOUT ADEQUATE UNIVERSITY ENTRANCE QUALIFICATIONS OR THEIR EQUIVALENT WILL NOT BE AFFECTED.

IT WILL BE THE RICH, HIGH QUALITY ASIAN (AND EUROPEAN) STUDENTS WHO COME FROM THE STATES TOP SINGLE SEX SCHOOLS AND PRIVATE SCHOOLS YOU MENTION IN CRACCUM THIS WEEK, LIKE AUCKLAND GRAMMAR AND KINGS AND ST.KENTS OR EGGS,ETC.

THESE STUDENTS ARE ALREADY LEAVING AUCKLAND TO STUDY IN OTAGO ANYWAY FOR THE SOCIAL LIFE WHICH IS NOW ABSENT FROM THE QUAD AT UNI DUE TO TRESPASS NOTICES ISSUED TO THE SORTS OF STUDENTS YOU MENTION WHO ARE NO LONGER WELCOME ON THE CAMPUS.

 
At 19/3/08 3:33 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

THE F.T.A WILL BE A DISASTER WITH THE END OF OPEN ENTRY THIS YEAR AND WE ALREADY HAVE A TORTURED HISTORY OF SIGNING A TREATY THAT HAS CAUSED GREAT DIVISION OVER THE LAST FEW DECADES UNFORTUNATELY.WE CANNOT LET THE NEXT DEAL WHICH WILL SUPERCEDE THE LAST ONE GO THROUGH IN A BASTARDISED FORM FROM THE VERY BEGINNING.SO, DAVID DO; THE FIRST ASIAN PRESIDENT OF AUSA ON THE 125TH JUBILEE OF THE UNIVERSITY OF AUCKLAND, WE ARE WITH YOU!

 
At 19/3/08 3:52 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"...the local born (or well-integrated non-identifiably immigrant/foreign) population and the foreign-born (or more readily identifiably immigrant/foreign) population."

THIS IS PURE NONSENSE TIM!

 
At 19/3/08 1:35 pm, Blogger Tim Selwyn said...

It's nonsense, but it's real I'm afraid. The unsophisticated way of explaning the phenomena is "They're taking our jobs", "They can't even speak our language", "These people are getting govt. hand-outs" etc. These are expressed in more vulgar and offensive terms through the prism of race. European-looking foreigners are largely immune from this sort of backlash.

Racial animosity in situations of economic downturn are well documented. As I said in some circles and esp. in provincial areas it is pronounced even when everything's fine.

 
At 19/3/08 6:00 pm, Anonymous tim "pride" shore said...

Personally, I don`t mind them "taking our jobs". If you are any good, you would have your own job. Better than them being on the dole like many of our immigrants from the generation previous.

 
At 20/3/08 12:08 pm, Blogger Tim Selwyn said...

"Pride":
You don't understand the context. In a recession the "any good" criteria becomes "how low will you tolerate your wages being" - for immigrants from low wage countries and those who have no recourse to social welfare here then that amount will always be lower than everyone else, and therefore we have a strong downward pressure on wages with low income jobs - that pits working class against working class and results in racial antagonism.

As for your assertion about previous generations being bludgers: they were not, they lost their jobs in the 70s recession - dawn raids, racism etc resulted.

 
At 20/3/08 1:24 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You think immigration is the primary cause of the rise in house prices, and that as soon as immigration slows housing prices will drop? Your economics is so simplistic it's retarded. Try look for some comparative case studies

 
At 22/3/08 4:49 pm, Blogger Tim Selwyn said...

No - you are wrong. It is simple and it is also correct. Your case studies are the wrong ones, or you have misinterpreted them. Read today's Herald!

 
At 23/3/08 2:23 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

WILLIE JACKSON SAID HE WOULD EXECUTE THE AUTHORS OF ROGERNOMICS.WOULD THAT BE ANY BETTER?

 

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