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Tuesday, March 25, 2008

National extends lead


National extends lead
National has extended its lead over Labour in the latest poll, which also shows a sharp drop in consumer confidence. The Morgan poll puts National on 51 per cent support (up 1.5 percentage points) and Labour on 34 per cent (down 1 point). It contradicts other recent polls which show Labour slightly closing the gap

I think we really need to see what the impact of Roger Douglas (brought back from a stasis chamber fuelled by the tears of solo mothers) announcement of joining ACT will be before we write the election off, oh and wasn’t it a laugh seeing ACT on campus having to hand out party pills to get members to join, they do realize they can’t bribe people on the actual election day right? Labour were able to spook the electorate last time with ‘Don Brash is the boogieman with a massive secret right wing agenda’, but that tactic has fallen completely flat with John Key, indeed it’s made Labour look very shrill in their claims of ‘Rich Prick’ – Roger Douglas on the other hand and his claim at the press conference last week that he would like a cabinet position - Finance Minister anyone? – is a completely different kettle of fish and seeing Key take a week to stamp the idea out shows how difficult juggling this relationship with ACT is going to be – especially as National has selected Sadist-look-a-like-of –the-year Steven Franks as their Wellington candidate – while Douglas will be great for ACT, all those Labour Voters who have recently gone to National can be and will be spooked back to Labour as a world under the Dark rule of Roger Douglas is enough of a boogieman to keep voters awake at night, Clark and Cullen would have been laughing with delight when Douglas announced he’s running again.

19 Comments:

At 25/3/08 8:56 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

How will those national votes be spooked back to labour when key has rejected douglas for a ministerial post?

Admit it, its not a realistic election is it bomber.

 
At 25/3/08 9:44 am, Blogger Bomber said...

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come on, you think that will stop Labour claiming Key isn't being honest and will point to Stephen Franks as the Wellington candidate to suggest Key is going to the right, and will also point out it took Key a week to distance itself from Act, Labour have plenty of mud to throw

 
At 25/3/08 11:09 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Labour can point and throw muck all it likes but the polls suggest this strategy isn't getting any traction. Act tried it for years and where are they polling at.

Thing about labour is that they've lost touch with the electorate. People don't believe things will get any worse under national because they both occupy the same ground in terms of economic policy.

Clarke, while I concede is intelligent and able, doesn't seem to be able to perceive what people want.

Labour can shout all it likes about govt cutbacks under national but when people read the papers and see how injured and sick old people are left in the corridors of north shore hospital for hours and the major issues with DHB's in wellington and hawkes bay together with the balloning of policy anayst numbers and PR specialists in wellinton (they advertise for employees on the sides of buses now) they now now that something is up.

The electorate isn't stupid bomber. They want taxcuts to offset the inflationary increases in petrol prices, interest rates and basic foodstuffs.

If labour doesn't listen to the electorate and deliver to make peoples lives easier then they will go to someone who will. It's that simple.

 
At 25/3/08 11:35 am, Blogger Bomber said...

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Where as I disagree - the boogieman doesn't work with John Key and that's what the Polls show, look at the TVNZ poll showing 48% were against asset sales, all Labour has to do is play to that, and the Roger Douglas boogieman is the greatest one they can play

 
At 25/3/08 11:56 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Asset sales are not a live issue. Key appears to be smarter than that which why he came out about Douglas.

I think your ignoring the wider issues here of what the electorate thinks are important.

You may bring the issue of a poll against asset sales but that is a hypothetical policy which key has avoided addressing, but then why no t bring up the issue of popular support against anti-smacking legislation as a measure of peoples dissatisfaction.

 
At 25/3/08 12:15 pm, Blogger Bomber said...

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Hmmm - I agree those are National Party voter issues, but I'm talking about the 10% who recently went to National from Labour - it is that 10% Cullen and Clark will target with the Roger Douglas boogieman, and Stephen Franks standing for National in Wellington central is the icing on the cake for them in that aspect - the reason Key has been so successful is because he is seen as a moderate, it is women that National are trying to bring across, and it is those female votes that Labour will try and spook back - we are interviewing Cullen on Thursday for next weeks Let's Be Frank to talk tactics for this years elections, so I'll put it to him.

 
At 25/3/08 12:15 pm, Blogger Bomber said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 25/3/08 12:32 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"the reason Key has been so successful is because he is seen as a moderate"

I think you hit the nail on the head here and therefore by corollary the poll numbers suggest that people see Clark is too much of an extremist.

She'll need to soften her stance on many issues and listen instead of attempting to dictate what peoples interests are. The moves toward criminalizing graffiti, irrespective of its good or bad points shows she may still be able to best Key but its going to take more than that to win.

Maybe the problem of using Douglas as a bogyman is that a large proportion of the voters either don't remember the 80s or that those who do have done quite well financially in the past 6 years and saw that period as a necessary one.

 
At 25/3/08 12:44 pm, Blogger Bomber said...

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Maybe the problem of using Douglas as a bogyman is that a large proportion of the voters either don't remember the 80s or that those who do have done quite well financially in the past 6 years and saw that period as a necessary one.

Yes but those latter people aren't going to have been voting Labour in the first place are they - and for that 10% who switched from Labour to National, Roger Douglas as Boogieman is incredibly effective - also Key has been seen as moderate - UP UNTIL NOW - come on, there's no way Douglas or Franks could be considered moderate, so while Key has done incredibly well to re-position himself as moderate, this alliance could be his un-doing. For ACT this is great and I'd predict 3-4% for them in the next election, but also watch for an exodus of recently switched Labour to National voters.

Oh and talking of the oldies, won't Winston be able to get on his band wagan for the oldies who do remember Douglas?

 
At 25/3/08 1:13 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Yes but those latter people aren't going to have been voting Labour in the first place are they"

Not necessarily true, most of my friends who hold university qualifications and have professional backgrounds in their 20-25s tend to be labour voters when by your account they should be national, which makes me somewhat of a freak. I tend to blame this on the economic consensus between the two parties and they know their interests will not be damaged.

but the real issue for labour in terms of the swing vote is why are these former supporters going to national and will scaring them bring them back instead of offering better policy alternatives.

"so while Key has done incredibly well to re-position himself as moderate, this alliance could be his un-doing."

Agreed; but is it really an alliance when Act are polling at the margin of error.

But if they were to go into govt together what are the chances that their relationship will be like the labour-green one; one party will be dominant while the other takes whatever policy scraps it is given so they can go back to their supporters and claim they made a difference. I think you're greatly overestimating the juice Act has on national.

I think moderate left voters and old school working class labour supporters perceived this and were willing to accept the green being brought in on these terms. The same could be said for the national/act coalition.

 
At 25/3/08 2:00 pm, Blogger Bomber said...

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Oh look, we both know that ACT would have a minimal effect with their current polling but it is the perception that Douglas and Franks makes that is what matters here, oh you can point out Labour/Green relations till the cows come home, what I suggest is that you simply refuse to see how damaging Douglas will be to National because you don't accept Douglas was that damaging, which puts you to the right of National and in a minority - I argue the majority of NZers will see him in that light and that it will become reflected in the polls if Labour hammer him as a 'Threat' - just like Cullen did last week

 
At 25/3/08 4:18 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

A little birdie told me a certain book is going to have more of an impact than Roger Douglas...

 
At 25/3/08 9:00 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Labour will win, of course they will, as I type they are going door to door in 'poor' neighbourhoods making sure the beneficiaries are registered to vote and arranging coaches to get them to polling stations.

Big Trevs Ghost

 
At 25/3/08 9:50 pm, Anonymous lil trev said...

a bigger birdie suggested a doco will have an even bigger impact, I wonder what ever happened to big trev and his parasite website, not so much the sand in bombers crack as a very fine dust with no abrasive edges whatsoever

 
At 26/3/08 6:02 pm, Anonymous Pilkes said...

what is that guy holding in his hand in the photo

 
At 27/3/08 8:16 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Its the heart of an innocent child which he is about to eat. National will eat your children - hence the photo.

 
At 27/3/08 2:50 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

thems Clark and Cunning Cullen were delighted about Douglas. Till they see that NAT move left now right into their heart what, NAT get ACt distance, dude NZ RAIL things like that from NAT you never seen yet,pq

 
At 31/3/08 9:26 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What is that man holding?

 
At 31/3/08 9:12 pm, Blogger peterquixote said...

bomber
"Sadist-look-a-like-of –the-year Steven Franks as their Wellington candidate – while Douglas will be great for ACT, all those Labour Voters who have recently gone to National can be and will be spooked back to Labour as a world under the Dark rule of Roger Douglas is enough of a boogieman to keep voters awake at night, Clark and Cullen would have been laughing with delight when Douglas announced he’s running again"

very Orwellian bomber but untrue.
here in side your heart dude it is not us right you have no worry about we are not mad, we know that Douglas is dead, but you would do well to see that Stephen Franks is intelligent alive and thinking .. it donts be easy dude but leave the rest to me, there a lot of water to travel under the bridge yet
i

 

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