Yeah, I know...

David Farrar has some interesting thoughts on the Environment Ministry implosion. He does really seem to know just about everything that happens in Wellington.

So the regime dumps all the shit just before Christmas to start the new year unimpeded when no-one notices or has time to care. Mallard's groveling and multiple apologies divert away from more important issues like the Electoral laws, Police failure and disarray over Auckland's development. Labour have handled the timing of these self-inflicted crises as well as anyone can juggle a live grenade - but they still get blown up in the end if they don't extract the problem quickly. Speaking of which Benson-Pope got chucked, Maharey, the heir-apparent, bailed out, although Field lingers on and they still regularly use his vote. The remaining Labour leadership (and Anderton is included in that) will probably be desperate enough after the election to go into coalition with support parties on far better terms than previously. Their arrogance is at its height too, but self-preservation means a lot as after this they are at retirement and they will be retired if they loose. What will their legacy be?

National are ahead in the polls because of the cumulative effect of these failings. Expect to have it entrenched by some more nationalist cross-cultural symbolism from Key leading up to Waitangi. Next year's election could hang on leaked emails from National being spread hinting Nats will put interest back on Student Loans (?) - that issue more than anything else gave Labour the momentum to beat National last time - since Labour can't do that again they can argue that a National government would reverse it if they win. That could scare those people back.