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Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Climate denial old white man fantasy

I’ve got a theory about those who are climate change deniers. I listen to Mike Laws on Radio Live and Paul Henry on Breakfast fumble for excuses to explain climate change. They deny venomously that it has anything to do with human activity, it is not their wasteful consumption that leads to global warming – they will throw at you sun spots and volcanoes and that global warming is a ‘natural’ thing. They will point to fucking aliens, anything other than their way of life to explain climate change. And who could blame them? Who would want to admit that their wasteful way of life may end the Earth? Who wants to willingly give up their privileged existence to something more humble and sustainable? These are the old white men who have loved their luxury and don’t want to be told that it’s unaffordable, just as the Indian and Chinese middle classes don’t want to be told that the western lifestyle they have longed for is now unaffordable. Well, I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but it is all unaffordable and unless we start making radical changes within the next 10-15 years than we will breach those ‘tipping’ points built into the environment which, once breached, will only speed up a dramatic and rapid climate change scenario.

But let’s look at some of the claims of our old white friends – that it is volcanoes and sun spots that effect global warming and that the Earth naturally cools and warms. Duh! Well of course that is true, volcanoes and sun spots DO effect the weather and there is a natural occurring heating up and cooling down BUT none of those things can account for the type of warming up that we are seeing now – the only thing that explains that is anthropogenic interference (human interference). The natural cooling and heating of the Earth like the Milankovich cycles doesn’t answer what we are seeing now, and as the Encyclopedia of Ocean Sciences points out….

The prevalence of abrupt nonlinear (rather than
smooth and gradual) climatic change in the past
naturally leads to the question whether such changes
can be expected in the future, either by natural
causes or by human interference. The main outside
driving forces of past climatic changes are the
Milankovich cycles. Close inspection of these cycles
as well as modelling results indicates that we are
presently enjoying an unusually quiet period in the
climatic effect of these cycles, owing to the present
minimum in eccentricity of the earth’s orbit. The
next large change in solar radiation that could trigger
a new ice age is probably tens of thousands of
years away. If this is correct, it makes the Holocene
an unusually long interglacial, comparable to the
Holstein interglacial that occurred around 400 000
years ago when the earth’s orbit went through
a similar pattern. This stable orbital situation leaves
unpredictable events (such as meteorite impacts or
a series of extremely large volcanic eruptions) and
anthropogenic interference as possible causes for
abrupt climatic changes in the lifetime of the next
few generations of humans.

Significant anthropogenic warming of the lower
atmosphere and ocean surface will almost certainly
occur in this century, raising concerns that nonlinear
thresholds in the climate system could be exceeded
and abrupt changes could be triggered at some
point. Processes that have been (rather speculatively)
mentioned in this context include a collapse of the
West Antarctic Ice Sheet, a strongly enhanced greenhouse
effect due to melting of permafrost or triggering
of methane hydrate deposits at the seafloor,
a large-scale wilting of forests when drought tolerance
thresholds are exceeded, nonlinear changes in
monsoon regimes, and abrupt changes in ocean circulation.
Of those possibilities, the risk of a change in
ocean circulation is probably the best understood
and perhaps also the least unlikely. Two factors
could weaken the circulation and bring it closer to
a threshold: the warming of the surface and a dilution
of high-latitude waters with fresh water. The
latter could result from an enhanced atmospheric
water cycle and precipitation as well as meltwater
runoff from Greenland and other glaciers. Both
warming and fresh water input reduce surface density
and thereby inhibit deep water formation.


At 31/10/06 11:30 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Global temperatures will rise by five degrees and the talkback bullshitters will still be telling us that sunspots were responsible. Someone ought to remind these wankers that death and extinction are 'natural' things too.

...that effect global warming...

...DO effect the weather...

Affect. Not effect.

At 31/10/06 2:29 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

al gore said something that struck a chord with me. "as long as the salaries of those in power are dependant upon the status quo. things will not change." my quote isn't exact, but the intent is.

At 31/10/06 5:45 pm, Blogger SamClemenz said...

Who cares what Michael Laws say's he's an arrogant, ignorant ass. AS Bob Jones once said about Don Brash - "Anything Don Brash forecasts as head of the reserve bank, I do exactly the opposite" - also applies to Michael Laws.

At 31/10/06 8:56 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yeah, let's take advice from Bob Jones, who threw a little tanty because someone DARED to answer a cell phone in his holy presence.

One thing Laws is correct on, "normal" people's eyes glaze over when global warming is mentioned. And for good reason. It's the most BORING fad to take hold since chatter rings.

IF global warming is happening, none of us are going to be around to get burned to a crisp. Let the thrid or fourth generation from now deal with it.

At 31/10/06 10:04 pm, Anonymous Rambaldi said...

Oh how wrong you are, some estimates put the change to occur by 2050, others later, what most models dont take into account though and its a bit deal is that water as it heats holds less gas, currently the ocean holds a hole lot of carbon dioxide. All this CO2 will be released and speed up the change, estimates including this are slowly coming about although only very rough so far predict significant changes much much sooner than previously expected.

At 1/11/06 7:21 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"These are the old white men who have loved their luxury and don’t want to be told that it’s unaffordable, just as the Indian and Chinese middle classes don’t want to be told that the western lifestyle they have longed for is now unaffordable."

Now that is the crux of the matter.
It will be easier to convince the wealthy western elite that they have to alter their lifestyle than it will be to convince the Chinese and the Indians that they can't have what we already have.

At 1/11/06 11:38 am, Blogger nzconservative said...

Global warming is not an accurate phrase.

Consistent, predictable hot weather is not so much of a problem. Its climatic instability and unpredictable weather thats the problem.

How are farmers supposed to grow enough crops to feed the world's growing poulation when they don't know what the seasons are going to do.

At 1/11/06 2:20 pm, Anonymous Jeff said...

Does this mean we dont have to travel to the tropics for a tan :P

On a more serious noteI think NZ's outrage at the prospect of being taxed to deliver our goods just shows how fucked we really are, ignoring the efficiency arguments for now it just shows while we preach lets do shit we actually dont want to, now think about the people we need to change, USofA and u relise, were fucked.

Maybe we should embrace it and look forward to being Venus the second.

At 2/11/06 7:40 am, Blogger SamClemenz said...

To anonymous and NZ Conservative (is that something like Military intelligence?)
Bob Jones is an astute, mind like a bear trap business man, who has earned his way and reputation in a market place filled with Cowboys like you two appear to be. When you say "normal people's eyes glaze over", what planet do your normal people come from? Probably the same planet Don Brash comes from - Pluto, oh, sorry, Pluto is a gas Giant, but it is a lot like you two and Brash - full of hot air and noxious gas. When the worlds renown scientific community comes together in harmony to spell out a warming on planetary warming you listen (if you have a brain that is) to ignore these reports could be like saying "no thank you" to a pre-offering (1986) of Microsoft Stock at $25.00 a share.
I suppose dim bulbs hang together though - so go ahead and listen to the politically paid non-scientist scientists that earn for their dissent on warming topics to protect the financial interest of industries that are the main offenders. What a couple of Homer Simpson's!
The problem you guys have is that National doesn't have any policy on climate and Labour has come out with a comprehensive plan this week to take NZ into a lead position on Sustainable development.
Proof of this was on Monday's Morning report when Don Brash was asked how National would handle cleaning up Coal fired Power Generation Plants. He had absolutely no answer and completely dodged the question. That seems to be National's stance on everything these days. Either they attack the opposition for something totally unrelated, or they have nothing to say about any plans they might have for leadership if and when they are ever allowed back in the public system. Your comments say a lot about your processing power gentlemen!

At 2/11/06 7:44 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

sweet good to hear you talking about tipping points - now you realise a middle class lifestyle is unsustainable it is up to you to start living simply. Start a garded - go vegan. Start skilling yourself up for the inevitable collapse when we run out of cheap oil.

Good luck bomber and hope to see you on the other side.


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