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Thursday, October 12, 2006

655 000 Iraqi Dead


We don’t know how many Iraqi’s have died from the illegal war Amerika and her stooges have waged in the name of the Freedom Democracy brand. It’s not that we can’t count Iraqi dead, it’s because we in the West don’t really want to know what the real tragedy of this misadventure is actually costing real human beings - we’d just like our oil thanks.

The Lancet, is one of the oldest and most respected peer-reviewed medical journals in the world, and today they publish a John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health (JHBSPH) report that the mortality rates have more than doubled since the invasion to overthrow Saddam Hussein. That’s an estimated 655 000 Iraqis who have died because of the invasion.

That is an ocean of blood that Bush is responsible for.

'Huge rise' in Iraqi death tolls
An estimated 655,000 Iraqis have died since 2003 who might still be alive but for the US-led invasion, according to a survey by a US university.
The research compares mortality rates before and after the invasion from 47 randomly chosen areas in Iraq.

The figure is considerably higher than estimates by official sources or the number of deaths reported in the media.

It is vigorously disputed by supporters of the war in Iraq, including US President George W Bush.

John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health (JHBSPH) estimate that the mortality rates have more than doubled since the invasion to overthrow Saddam Hussein, causing an average of 500 deaths a day.

In the past, Mr Bush has put the civilian death toll in Iraq at 30,000, and hours after details of the latest research were published he dismissed JHBSPH's methodology as "pretty well discredited".

The John Hopkins researchers argue their statistical approach is more reliable than counting dead bodies, given the obstacles preventing more comprehensive fieldwork in the violent and insecure conditions of Iraq.

"I stand by the figure that a lot of innocent people have lost their life... and that troubles me, and it grieves me," Mr Bush told reporters at the White House.

"Six-hundred thousand or whatever they guessed at is just... it's not credible," Mr Bush said.


Sharp rise

The researchers spoke to nearly 1,850 families, comprising more than 12,800 people in dozens of 40-household clusters around the country.

Of the 629 deaths they recorded among these families since early 2002, 13% took place in the 14 months before the invasion and 87% in the 40 months afterwards.

Such a trend repeated nationwide would indicate a rise in annual death rates from 5.5 per 1,000 to 13.3 per 1,000 - meaning the deaths of some 2.5% of Iraq's 25 million citizens in the last three-and-a-half years.

The researchers say that in nearly 80% of the individual cases, family members produced death certificates to support their answers.

Reliable data is very hard to obtain in Iraq, where anti-US insurgents and sectarian death squads pose a grave danger to civilian researchers.

The survey updates earlier research using the same "cluster" technique which indicated that 100,000 Iraqis had died between the invasion and April 2004 - a figure that was also dismissed by many supporters of the US-led coalition.


'Survivor bias'

While critics point to the discrepancy between this and other independent surveys (such as Iraq Body Count's figure of 44-49,000 civilian deaths, based on media reports), the Bloomberg School team says its method may actually underestimate the true figure.

"Families, especially in households with combatants killed, could have hidden deaths. Under-reporting of infant deaths is a widespread concern in surveys of this type," the authors say.

"Entire households could have been killed, leading to survivor bias."

The survey suggests that most of the extra deaths - 601,000 - would have been the result of violence, mostly gunfire, and suggests that 31% could be attributable to action by US-led coalition forces.

The survey is to be published in a UK medical journal, the Lancet, on Thursday.

In an accompanying comment, the Lancet's Richard Horton acknowledges that the 2004 survey provoked controversy, but e mphasises that the 2006 follow-up has been recommended by "four expert peers... with relatively minor revisions".

7 Comments:

At 12/10/06 10:10 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I believe in the validity of the Lancet report about that. I see Bush doing his best to try and discredit the Lancet, but does anybody, besides himself, believe his crap. Bush being that man of true credibility... not.

 
At 12/10/06 10:32 am, Blogger Luke said...

honestly that figure is just disgusting. 655,000! thats alot of people unlawfully killed.

yes anon your on to it, this should be held against him as a crime against humanity or watever suddam was arrested for.

 
At 12/10/06 11:24 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://www.gnn.tv/articles/2609/Now_that_you_could_be_labeled_an_enemy_combatant

 
At 12/10/06 9:28 pm, Blogger Luke said...

slightly off topic but Bush has apparently eliminated Habeas Corpus off of the bill of rights

http://usinfo.state.gov/usa/infousa/facts/funddocs/billeng.htm

Don't worry though, americans will still have the right to number 3:
"No soldier shall, in time of peace be quartered in any house, without the consent of the owner, nor in time of war, but in a manner to be prescribed by law."

 
At 13/10/06 2:48 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Iraq is a colossal f*ck-up, but it appears the 650 000 is just a number the Lancet has pulled out of its ass:

http://timblair.net/ee/index.php/weblog/547_becomes_654965/

http://decision08.net/2006/10/12/prominent-statistician-and-bush-opponent-calls-lancet-study-unreliable/

 
At 13/10/06 3:24 pm, Blogger Bomber said...

...
And of course, I disagree with you Deano, this from the good people at No Right Turn

Given that I'm sure that the methodology of this will receive a lot of attention, here is a response defending (broadly, at least), the study, from the wonderful Hilzoy at Obsidian Wings. I hope my posting this is permitted, I guess...

The Lancet Study
by hilzoy

As many of you probably know the Lancet has come out with a study which found this:


"We estimate that as of July, 2006, there have been 654 965 (392 979–942 636) excess Iraqi deaths as a consequence of the war, which corresponds to 2·5% of the population in the study area. Of post-invasion deaths, 601 027 (426 369–793 663) were due to violence, the most common cause being gunfire."

This is, of course, horrible. Unfortunately, I do not have time to write a long post about this. However, having skimmed some of the reaction to this study, a few notes.

First, it's worth bearing in mind that very few bloggers are statisticians. Some are, and their views of the previous Lancet study are worth rereading. I have taken courses in biostatistics and epidemiology, and the studies do not seem to me to have any major problems beyond those noted in the article itself, nor do those problems invalidate the results.

The people who did this study, however, are public health professionals at one of the best schools of public health in the country. Statistical studies of population health and mortality are one of the main things that public health researchers do. Biostatistics is not ancillary to their field, as it is to mine; it is a central part of it. These people are very serious experts.

This does not mean, of course, that their work cannot be challenged. Experts are not infallible. It does mean, however, that one should be aware that one is challenging the work of people who are very, very good at what they do. (Note: I do not know any of the people who wrote the study, though I have met one of the statisticians they consulted. He's very good.)

Second, as people kept saying over and over in response to the last study, the fact that these results are higher than those provided by Iraq Body Count is no surprise. The two use completely different methods. Iraq Body Count relies on "online media reports from recognized sources." Are all deaths reported by "online media reports from recognized sources"? Of course not. This study, by contrast, visits a representative sample of households and asks about deaths. They asked for death certificates 87% of the time; when they asked, they saw death certificates in 92% of the cases.

When you go out and look for deaths, you are likely to find more of them than when you wait for people to report them and then count the reports. Specifically, you are likely to catch all the unreported deaths. (In this case, "unreported" means "unreported by the media.")

Anyone who says that the discrepancy between the Lancet study's figures and any figures derived from IBC or any other group that relies on reported deaths shows, by that very fact, that they have no clue what they are talking about.

Third, about the idea that the timing of this is politically motivated: that in no way impugns the accuracy if the study. Moreover, if I had done a study like this, I would want to get it out before the election too. Information like this, if valid, is exactly the sort of information that people should have in order to make an informed decision about who to vote for. If anyone wants to show that the study's conclusions are false, they should do so. But saying that the fact that it was released now shows that they aren't valid is just wrong.

 
At 20/10/06 12:34 pm, Blogger Bomber said...

...
Waiting for a reply here Deano.....

 

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