Bug out

So Mr Bush has made another declaration of the forced love of the USA for Iraq.

Bush Unveils 'Strategy For Victory' in Iraq
An emotional President Bush this morning asserted that U.S. tactics "are bringing us victory against a brutal enemy." –Daniela Deane 12:18 p.m. ET[Washington Post]



Capitol Hill is abuzz with open speculation as to an evacuation/disengagement timetable. Pressure is coming from many sides. The Bush Administration denies timetables and goes on about "not cutting and running" so many times you know they are lying. The fact is they cannot stay in a state of war in Iraq permanently and therefore a date to cease US military action is a certainty. The next logical step is for Bush (and remember his stock line in the 2000 election debates to all questions about war: "You gotta have an exit strategy") is for his Administration to reveal the plan called "Exit strategy" not "Plan for Victory" - because that implies a certain state of subjection that goes beyond face-saving. It will happen anyway and everyone knows it.

The Americans have no plans to expend major resources (construction/civil and military) on Iraq beyond the end of 2006. The elections under the new Iraqi constitution are due Dec 15 and it will be very soon after that date that they will cobble together the confirmation of what will have happened throughout 2006 - a staged American military reduction and withdrawal from permanent patrols and street presence. They will leave a rump force of approx. 50,000 in their "Baghdad Embassy" and bases around Iraq to be called out only in short raids. The current network of private mercenaries of commercial operations and US supported local militia/mercenaries will be strengthened. But how long will that situation last?

In South Vietnam the disengagement of the US troops came in early 1973 (?) and by April 1975 the last chopper left their Saigon embassy amidst the total collapse of the US-backed regime. If that repeats and Dec 2006 is the disengagement date then we are looking at 2008 for a regime change and total US exit - but it all hangs on who the government of Iraq represents.

Will it represent a stacked election of US funded parties and Kurdish Nationalists? Will it represent the militant Sunnis? How long before the new parliament demands the US leaves? - or stays! Will the US set up a puppet regime run by Saddam in the Sunni Province as the only way to keep order?

If the Americans have the intelligence to hand the mess all over to the UN (who will co-opt the Arab League) then it might work - but the US won't stomach that. So in the absence of anyone else joining them they will be left with the animal of their own making. As long as the US have enough military to keep the oil flowing and enforce their contracts then the terrorist cesspool they have made is just something they will have to accept.