ELECTION BOOK: TV3 poll - hugely volatile

----------LATEST NEWS-----------
@ 6:20pm 7 Sept.
TV3 poll 7 Sept.:
Party vote:
LAB 45%, NAT 36%, NZF 5%, GRN 7%, MAO 1.7%, UNF 1.5%, ACT 2.4%, PRG 0.3%

----------COMMENTARY-----------
@6:45pm 8 Sept.
The off-shore books are dumping National rapidly following Brethren controversy. I'll wait to see Brash's defence on Close Up and the debate tonight on TV1 before altering the odds - and they ought to be tightening on Labour too.

@2:30pm 8 Sept.
My odds fully vindicated at this point with entire market aligning. And I'm going to keep it there too, until there is a measurable movement that confirms a trend to my satisfaction.

@10:30pm 7 Sept.
Both of the off-shore bookies have tightened towards Labour, but not as much as I would have expected - those strong National polls earlier in the week must be weighted quite heavily in their thinking.

@6:20pm 7 Sept.
I'm not moving, don't have to. The off-shore markets overstated the last poll that put National ahead. Maybe they'll overstate this one too? This significant Labour lead illustrates the volatility in polling I wrote about last time, whereby the pollers press people who say "don't know" for an answer and they tell them whoever had the best headlines for that day and that response (which could easily change tommorow) is counted as being a firm vote rather than a don't know. $1.66 - I'm happy with that... until tomorrow.

Explanation: If I was operating this book in real terms I would have gone down to one point above the best National Party rate rather than have stayed at $2.12 for the last week.

-----2005 New Zealand General Election-----

----------CURRENT ODDS: TUMEKE!-----------
@6:20pm 7 Sept.
HEAD TO HEAD
Option 2: National-Labour head-to-head largest party vote.
$1.66 Labour
$2.12 National

----------CURRENT ODDS: OFF-SHORE-----------
@6:45pm 8 Sept.
PARTY TO PROVIDE NEXT PM
Centrebet: LAB $1.60, NAT $2.20
Sportingbet: LAB $1.60 NAT $2.25
Betfair: LAB £1.72 NAT £2.10

@2:30pm 8 Sept.
PARTY TO PROVIDE NEXT PM
Centrebet: LAB $1.65, NAT $2.10
Sportingbet: LAB $1.67 NAT $2.10
Betfair: LAB £1.72 NAT £2.00

@10:30pm 7 Sept.
PARTY TO PROVIDE NEXT PM
Centrebet: LAB $1.70, NAT $2.00
Sportingbet: LAB $1.77 NAT $1.95
Betfair: LAB £1.73 NAT £1.57

@6:20pm 7 Sept.
PARTY TO PROVIDE NEXT PM
Centrebet: LAB $1.80, NAT $1.90
Sportingbet: LAB $1.82 NAT $1.88
Betfair: LAB £1.72 NAT £1.80

Politicalbetting.com also has some relevant information.