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Friday, September 09, 2005

ELECTION BOOK: TV1 Debate: Labour $1.49/Centrebet now @$1.40! Unity on the Left/Peters unhappy with Nats

----------LATEST NEWS-----------
@ 02:30am 11 Sept.
Herald On Sunday poll 11 Sept.:
Party vote:
LAB 42.1%, NAT 38.5%, NZF 5.5%, GRN 6.0%, MAO 2.3%, UNF 1.8%, ACT 2.1%
Most preferred PM:
Clark 41.6%
Brash 30.2%

@ 00:30am 9 Sept.
NZ Herald poll 9 Sept.:
Party vote:
LAB 40.6%, NAT 40.1%, NZF 7.1%, GRN 5.6%, MAO 2.8%, UNF 0.7%, ACT 1.9%, PRG 0.4%, DST 0.3%

@02:30am 11 Sept.
HoS poll shows Labour nudging ahead on party vote but Clark and Brash only 11% difference in leadership stakes - Don should be hit hard by his idiocy and deception but seems to be weathering it in this poll which was taken Friday and Saturday. Go figure? SST poll due out in a few hours. If Labour are ahead there too I will tighten on Labour by at least 7c and wait to see what the TV poll due out on tonight's news says before moving again.

@5:00pm 9 Sept.
Off-shore have come in to $1.40! Given there has been nothing else except bad news for National in the last 48 hours, perhaps. But I suspect that what has caused this sharp adjustment is a large amount of very serious money coming on to Labour as they sense victory. The timing in the dramatic odds change was this afternoon when the Kiwi punters would have been active. I don't have that punter pressure so I will not move it until something else quantifiable happens. But as I said before it will probably narrow for Labour. You guys who back National should start thinking about the $2.75 on offer at the moment if you're true blue. This is where my odds diverge too as it is increasingly clear that Labour will have enough partners to govern even if National pipped them in the party vote. My odds are for the party vote - not who will govern. Keep that in mind as Labour have a good 5-10c minimum governing advantage regardless of exact party vote at the moment due to the "unity of the left" I mentioned earlier post-debate.

@12:30pm 9 Sept.
Was right to tighten Labour significantly - others following. Reluctant to push National out beyond $2.40, but may happen soon. As speculated in TV debate post, Brownlee is running defence for Brash which could make it worse as outlined.

@00:30am 9 Sept.
Unity signalled from the Left in the TV1 Leaders' Debate and in-fighting sensed amongst Dunne and esp. Peters on the Right. Add that to the unsightly spectacle of Brash's own exclusive interpretaion of Nixon and we have someone who looks just as tarnished and tawdry as the current PM. Well there goes that advantage. Will the NBR have a poll today? Talk about neck and neck - insert cliché here. Momentum is with Labour due to Brash's pamphlet recollections. Also Brash will find using Maori-bashing as a tool counter-productive from now on - it will just sound a bit too desperate as he needs to sound like a wise and safe Prime Minister. Same too with any paintergate/speedgate/Doonegate etc. as this will sound a bit hollow now. Having said all that, National may have one single golden arrow left in it's quiver and Labour may fumble. But that opportunity is narrowing exponentially - and I think the odds in the other markets are going to reflect that soon. I expect to be tightening on Labour in the near future.

-----2005 New Zealand General Election-----

----------CURRENT ODDS: TUMEKE!-----------
@00:30am 9 Sept.
Option 2: National-Labour head-to-head largest party vote.
$1.49 Labour
$2.40 National

----------CURRENT ODDS: OFF-SHORE-----------
@5:00pm 9 Sept.
Centrebet: LAB $1.40, NAT $2.70
Sportingbet: LAB $1.40 NAT $2.75
Betfair: LAB £1.44 NAT £2.12 LAB £1.35 NAT £2.38 @02:30am 11 Sept.

@12:30pm 9 Sept.
Centrebet: LAB $1.55, NAT $2.30
Sportingbet: LAB $1.50 NAT $2.45
Betfair: LAB £1.44 NAT £2.12

@00:30am 9 Sept.
Centrebet: LAB $1.55, NAT $2.25
Sportingbet: LAB $1.60 NAT $2.25
Betfair: LAB £1.56 NAT £2.10


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