ELECTION BOOK: Snap polls say close/Act up/Odds static/Fairfax poll Nats up 6%!

----------LATEST NEWS-----------
@00:26am 14 Sept.
Fairfax poll reportedly puts Nats up by 6% over Labour. Will file details when available:
@11:10am 14 Sept.
LAB 37%, NAT 43%, NZF 7%, GRN 6%, ACT 1%, UNF 3%, MAO 1%

@11:40pm 11 Sept.
TVOne poll 11 Sept.
Party vote:
LAB 39%, NAT 41%, NZF 6%, GRN 6%, ACT 3%, UNF 2%, MAO 1%, DST 1%
Preferred PM:
HC 42%, DB 30%

@ 3:10pm 11 Sept.
Sunday Star-Times poll 11 Sept.:
Party vote:
LAB 37.2%, NAT 44.1%, NZF 4.7%, GRN 6.2%, MAO 0.4%, UNF 2.6%, PRG 0.2%, ACT <0.2%??

----------COMMENTARY-----------
@11:10am 14 Sept.
Centrebet came out to $1.55 - within the middle of the expected band. I will have to let Labour out too with the polls running this way - even if Fairfax tends to overstate Nat/UF support (too polite to tell pollsters to F off?/People who want a change more likely to want to tell someone?)

@00:26am 14 Sept.
Just when Centrebet had come back to me the Fairfax poll puts Nats 6 ahead! I think Centrebet will jump on this and push Labour out to $1.52-$1.58, even more. I must say I'm waivering a bit right now. I'll have to see the full poll results before moving... maybe later this morning. You true blue Nats better get some cash on @$2.75 with Sporting bet while it lasts.

@11:40pm 11 Sept.
Well, Labour doesn't even lead at all, so that's the last commentary put to rest. Amazed at National's staying power given their leadership line-up. Brash is still 12% adrift in the personal ratings so I doubt he can overcome that unless Clark gets caught eating babies. Does the One poll favour National? Is there any mid-week polling? May change odds tomorrow.

@3:10pm 11 Sept.
SST poll typically overstates National - and in this poll also United Future - and was a Friday night snap poll too, so I doubt if National are in front. This pro-National bias is despite today's editorial leader endorsing Labour conditionally for a third term. Electorate still forgiving Brash for all manner of dim-witted and deceptive tactics (perhaps because of Labour's dirty tricks). Tonight's TV poll may be a catalyst for a significant movement if Labour leads by more than 7%. Will hold my odds unchanged until then.

-----2005 New Zealand General Election-----

----------CURRENT ODDS: TUMEKE!-----------
@11:10am 14 Sept.
HEAD TO HEAD
Option 2: National-Labour head-to-head largest party vote.
$1.52 Labour
$2.40 National

@00:44am 12 Sept.
HEAD TO HEAD
Option 2: National-Labour head-to-head largest party vote.
$1.48 Labour
$2.55 National

@3:10pm 11 Sept.
HEAD TO HEAD
Option 2: National-Labour head-to-head largest party vote.
$1.49 Labour
$2.40 National

----------CURRENT ODDS: OFF-SHORE-----------
@11:10am 14 Sept.
PARTY TO PROVIDE NEXT PM
Centrebet: LAB $1.55, NAT $2.30
Sportingbet: LAB $1.40 NAT $2.75
Betfair: LAB £1.40 NAT £2.72

@00:26am 14 Sept.
PARTY TO PROVIDE NEXT PM
Centrebet: LAB $1.45, NAT $2.55
Sportingbet: LAB $1.40 NAT $2.75
Betfair: LAB £1.37 NAT £2.96

@3:10pm 11 Sept. UNCHANGED @11:40pm 11 Sept.
PARTY TO PROVIDE NEXT PM
Centrebet: LAB $1.40, NAT $2.70
Sportingbet: LAB $1.40 NAT $2.75
Betfair: LAB £1.58 NAT £2.30