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Monday, September 12, 2005

ELECTION BOOK: Put up or shut up time bloganistas/Epsom odds

Punters are invited to grow some balls and make their selections in the comments section.

New special book on Epsom now open. Hide is in the ascendency as is the Party (albeit of very low base), but Labour's self-sacrificing candidate, Stuart Nash, is directing Labour voters to vote for Worth to keep Hide out! Can a Labourite vote for a Tory? Talk about psychological hurdles and leaps of faith. I'm not sure they will. Hide could turn it in the last week - it is quite possible (with or without Brash's nod). Remember that a quarter of that electorate has voted Act before. But at the moment (Monday 12 Sept.) the member for the Northern Club is ahead.

Option 13: Winning candidate, Epsom electorate
$1.65 Worth (National) BR
$2.20 Hide (Act) MS/TS
$50.00 Nash (Labour)

-----2005 New Zealand General Election-----

---------HEAD TO HEAD---------
Option 2: National-Labour head-to-head largest party vote.
LAB $1.48 @11am14/9 $1.52$1.70@00:30am 15/9
NAT $2.55 @11am14/9 $2.40 $2.05 @00:30am15/9

----------PARTY VOTE----------
Partyvote %...Punters
Option 3: Labour party vote.
40%+ DC/BB/MK/WK/BR
40%- TS/MS/AS/MT/DR/MB
Option 4: National party vote.
37%+ DC/MS/AS/MT/BB/MK/DR/WK/BR/MB
37%- TS
Option 5: NZ First party vote.
5%+TS/DC/MS/AS/MT/BB/MK/DR/WK/BR
5%- MB
Option 6: Greens party vote.
7%+ TS/DC/MT/MK/DR/WK/BR/MB
7%- MS/AS/BB
Option 7: Maori party vote.
3%+ TS/MB
3%- DC/MS/AS/MT/BB/MK/DR/WK/BR
Option 8: United Future party vote.
2%+ DC/MS/AS/MT/BB/DR/WK
2%- TS/MK/BR/MB
Option 9: Act party vote.
3%+ TS/MS/MT/MK
3%- DC/AS/BB/DR/WK/BR/MB
Option 10: Progressives party vote.
1%+ AS/MT/BB/MK
1%- TS/DC/MS/DR/WK/BR/MB
Option 11: All others party vote
2%+ TS/MS/BR
2%- DC/AS/MT/BB/MK/DR/WK/MB
Option 12: Destiny party vote
1%+ MS/BR/MB
1%- TS/DC/AS/MT/BB/MK/DR/WK
--------------------------------------
Bet closes: 16/09/2005 Results: are for election night % of total vote (excluding informals). TAB disclaimer: this is simulated only.
--------------------------------------
Punters:
TS=Tim Selwyn
DC=DC_Red
BB=Brian Boyko
MT=DenMT (via frogblog)
MK=Mikaere (via frogblog)
AS=Andrewudstraw
MS=Emmess (via this comments section)
DR=DR (via frogblog)
WK=Wekaontheroof (via frogblog)
BR=Bren
MB=Martyn Bradbury

6 Comments:

At 12/9/05 11:52 am, Anonymous Reasonable Ray said...

I have a history of backing anything Blue. Nats by 2 seats; Hide will snatch Epsom by a nose, Winston will get his Old Card.

 
At 12/9/05 1:27 pm, Blogger t selwyn said...

RR: You can make your picks in full by LAB+, NAT-, NZF- etc. I will also put up odds for Epsom.

 
At 13/9/05 10:08 pm, Anonymous emmess said...

NAT win

LAB-
NAT+
NZF+
GREEN-
MAORI-
UF+
ACT+
PROG-
OTHER+
DESTINY+

Hide wins Epsom

 
At 14/9/05 6:17 pm, Blogger Bren said...

This is based on the predictions I made here.
http://posterchildnz.blogspot.com/2005/09/election-prediction-ii.html

LAB win

LAB+
NAT+
NZF+
GRN+
MAORI-
UF-
ACT-
PROG-
OTHERS+
DESTINY+

Worth wins Epsom.

 
At 14/9/05 10:25 pm, Blogger t selwyn said...

Bren: Good options and analysis on your site BTW.

 
At 16/9/05 12:43 am, Blogger sagenz said...

the epsom morgan poll turned it. blogged in more detail. hide wins epsom, brahs is the next PM. booze going on ice :)

 

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