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Thursday, September 15, 2005

ELECTION BOOK: New TV polls/I'd give my left testicle to pick this one.

----------LATEST NEWS-----------
@6:15pm 15 Sept.
TV1 poll/TV3 poll
LAB 38%/40.5%
NAT 44%/38.7%
NZF 5.5%/6.8%
GRN 5.1%/6.9%
UNF 2.5%/3%
MAO 1.7%/1.4%
ACT 1.9%/0.9%
DST 0.9%/-

@00:30am 15 Sept.
ODT poll from yesterday as reported by Bren:
LAB 39.2%, NAT 43.1%, NZF 4.6%, GRN 6.2%, ACT 1.7%, UNF 2.5%, MAO 1.6%, PRG 0.5%

@6:15pm 15 Sept.
TV1 poll continues to favour right parties and TV3 poll to favour left parties - so it's perhaps about 39% apiece for the big parties. Act will be infuriated with the paltry performance. Sainsbury on TV1 says undecideds are 5% but that 20% don't know how they will vote on the day! Which is why the polls are all over the place as I have repeatedly said, repeatedly, repeatedly when people have wondered aloud why they are so. Because, and let me spell it out one more time: THE POLLSTERS KEEP PRESSING UNDECIDEDS INTO MAKING A CHOICE AND THEN RECORDING IT AS A HARD VOTE WHEN THEY ARE REALLY UNDECIDED and therefore should not be added to decided numbers. Brash has not closed the gap as most preferred PM and as I have said before, I will call the election for National if Brash draws level with Clark on this measure... THEREFORE: My odds remain unchanged. Let's see what the debate has in store.

@00:30am 15 Sept.
This is getting crazy now. TV3 are rumoured to have a poll out tonight. Then Friday has TV1, NBR and the most accurate one from last year, the Herald's digipoll. Wow. That incumbenct advantage to Labour built into my odds is beginning to melt away under sustained polling putting the Nats ahead. Labour, typically and as I have repeatedly said, only responds to National with dirt. Nats are useless at conveying competence (because they aren't) but people seem to want tax cuts regardless of how bumbling they are. The student loans evasion will hardly help Labour. Centerbet have gone evens yesterday afternoon - reflecting the intense uncertainty of the polling and probably some big bets going on National at the very good odds on offer. Sportingbet's $2.75 that lasted until that time too was too good - and I have been directing readers of the Blue persuasion to put some money on that before it came in - they should be rapt if they did.

@5:46pm 15 Sept.
Centrebet has Nats ahead! Mainly because of large bets for National I should think. TV3 says Campbell Live will have a piece on Centrebet punters tonight. TV1 & TV3 polls due 6pm. Will change if necessary thereafter. Need something monumental from the Leaders Debate on TV3 for that to come into play.

-----2005 New Zealand General Election-----

----------CURRENT ODDS: TUMEKE!-----------
@00:30am 15 Sept.
Option 2: National-Labour head-to-head largest party vote.
$1.70 Labour
$2.05 National

----------CURRENT ODDS: OFF-SHORE-----------
@2:02pm 15 Sept.
Centrebet: LAB $1.90 NAT $1.80
Sportingbet: LAB $1.80 NAT $1.90
Betfair: LAB £1.75 NAT £2.10

@00:30am 15 Sept.
Centrebet: LAB $1.85, NAT $1.85
Sportingbet: LAB $1.80 NAT $1.90
Betfair: LAB £1.81 NAT £1.90


At 15/9/05 5:55 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

At 15/9/05 6:20 pm, Anonymous Reasonable Ray said...

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At 16/9/05 12:41 am, Blogger t selwyn said...

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