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Monday, September 05, 2005

ELECTION BOOK: National narrows

----------LATEST NEWS-----------
@ 12:30am 5 Sept.
One News poll 4 Sept.:
Party vote:
LAB 38%, NAT 46%, NZF 5%, GRN 6%, MAO 2%, UNF 1%, ACT 1%, DST 1%
Preferred PM:
CLARK 40%, BRASH 31%

----------COMMENTARY-----------
@12:30am 5 Sept.
National getting traction from rednecks. Latest One poll is proof of that being after Orewa III or IV or LXXIX or whatever it was - one Pavlov's race-baiting is much like another. Public statements about not liking Maori are still considered Prime Ministerial by many Pakeha. How embarassing. If Brash can beat Clark on the preferred Prime Minister stakes then NATIONAL WILL WIN. He's gained a lot of ground but still has some way to go. BUT Nat's have poorly polling partners so will have a hard time forming a government even if they get more party vote. Therefore we shall probably see a slight difference in my odds compared with the others as they are on the party to provide PM question and not largest party vote. Very interesting times. Expect labour to get even dirtier! More "leaked" this and that and more negative ads like the one in today's NZ Herald claiming that National's tax cuts are "crazy."

-----2005 New Zealand General Election-----

----------CURRENT ODDS: TUMEKE!-----------
@2:00am 5 Sept.
HEAD TO HEAD
Option 2: National-Labour head-to-head largest party vote.
$1.66 Labour
$2.12 National

----------CURRENT ODDS: OFF-SHORE-----------
@4:23pm 5 Sept.
PARTY TO PROVIDE NEXT PM
Sportingbet: LAB $1.77 NAT $1.90
Betfair: LAB £1.65 NAT £1.70

@11:50am 5 Sept.
PARTY TO PROVIDE NEXT PM
Centrebet: LAB $1.75, NAT $1.95

@12:30am 5 Sept.
PARTY TO PROVIDE NEXT PM
Centrebet: LAB $1.55, NAT $2.25
Sportingbet: LAB $1.57 NAT $2.20
Betfair: LAB £1.45 NAT £1.70
Politicalbetting.com also has some relevant information.

1 Comments:

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