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Wednesday, August 31, 2005

ELECTION BOOK UPDATE: New TV3 poll. National narrows lead: $2.25

--------------3 SEPT. UPDATE--------------
Latest Fairfax poll:
LAB 41%, NAT 44%, NZF 4%, GRN 5%, ACT 1%, MAO 1% UNF 2%

Winnie's in trouble. The two-parties @ 85%! Unprecedented, surely! No third party seems to have traction or a novel enough message to make impact. NZF has no 3 things, Greens are just plain boring, Act is toast because Nat's have all their main policies, Maori Party have not caught imagination of those outside of core group ie. Pakeha, United Future are waffly fence-sitters... is it surprising? As the harness racing commentators say "400 from home and coming out of the bend it's neck and neck with Labour sitting it out for the passing lane." I'm not moving from $1.58.

LAB $1.55, NAT $2.25
--------------2 SEPT. UPDATE--------------

Latest NZ Herald poll:
LAB 43.4%, NAT 39.1%, NZF 6.6%, GRN 5%, ACT 2.1%, UNF 1.7%, MAO 1.2%, PRG 0.1%, DST 0.4%. Don't Know 10.2%

Polls reflecting news-of-the-day reactions of swinging voters. Hugely volatile. See also Brash's personal stats improving: Clark still strong at 52.8% but Brash on 34.8% as most preferred PM. This is significant. As stated and restated previously if Brash can be seen as a credible alternative leader he will have the momentum necessary to change the government and push National ahead. He just has to act more like a statesman and brush off criticism rather than engage in defending himself against Labour's dirty tactics because this just gives legs to a media beat-up. He's still an amateur in a professional code.

LAB $1.50, NAT $2.40

Latest TV3 poll (31/8):
LAB 39%, NAT 41%, NZF 6%, GRN 6%, ACT 1.4%, UNF 1.7%, MAO 1.7%, PRG 0.8%, DST 0.9%. Don't Know 11%.

National is gaining here - the poll is clear evidence. All the beat-up surrounding the Brash leadership emails is irrelevant and the voters know it. Still doesn't help that he has no mates in his pocket re: coalition. With 11% as will vote but don't know - it is still fairly volatile. Hey, Cullen, how many lollies do you have left?

Centrebet yet to move @11:45pm - good money here for Nats @ $2.55. Hurry!
LATEST UPDATE:@ 1:30pm 01/09: Labour $1.55, National $2.30.
LATEST UPDATE:@ 5:30pm 03/09: Labour $1.55, National $2.25.

-------------CURRENT ODDS--------------
-----2005 New Zealand General Election-----


Option 2: Nat-Lab head-to-head largest party vote.
$1.58 Labour
$2.25 National


At 2/9/05 11:56 am, Blogger peterquixote said...

how do we lay the bet,

At 2/9/05 2:23 pm, Blogger t selwyn said...

I think you can give your credit card details to Centrebet online, or else make your selection in the comments section here and I'll put your initials next to your pick.

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