ELECTION BOOK UPDATE: Labour polling: who won the TV3 debate?
Have just been telephone polled by UMR-Insight. Questions obviously for and about the Labour party in bold.
The full set of questions:
How certain are you to vote at this election?
Is the government on the right track or wrong track?
"Any chance you would vote Labour?" (Answer: Ha, ha - No!)
Local vote? (Answer: Hopefully an independent)
How did you vote in 2002 election?
Would National or Labour lead the next government?
"Does Labour deserve to be re-elected?" (Answer: No, but National doesn't deserve to be elected either.)
What's your single most important issue? (Answer: Justice, but not law and order - procedural fairness. Poller then creates seperate category)
Which party would best deal with that issue?
Party leaders: How do you rate:
Don Brash? (Answer: Very unfavourably to all three)
Which party has the best policies for New Zealand's future?
Who do you think has had the most impressive campaign?
Who is doing the most mud-slinging? (Answer: Labour)
Who do you think has made the most unaffordable promises?
Who has concentrated on the most important issues?
TV3 Leaders debate: who won?
Household/income/age questions etc. including:
Do you have a student loan? (Answer: Yes).
The student loan responses will be interesting to see what sort of inroads Labour have made and whether they are at the Greens' expense. Mudslinging too - but some people might think that it works and/or is a positive and legitimate tool. Also the expectations of who will lead the government regardless of one's personal preference is a good indication of the electorate's mood. If National can't chip away at that they are stuffed - although their support seems to be holding up in the latest polls. Problem with being polled at home on a lovely sunny Sunday is that people will be rather unconcerned or optimistic than realistic when asked about issues.
Centrebet's new odds (14/08) for next PM seem to have calmed down after the latest Fairfax poll:
Fairfax poll: (13/08):
LAB 42%, NAT 41%, NZF 6%, GRN 6%, UNF 2%, MAO 1%, ACT 1%
Herald on Sunday Digipoll (14/08):
LAB 45%, NAT 38%, NZF 7%, GRN 4%, MAO 2.4%, ACT 1.6%, UNF 0.7%, PRG 0.3%
The odds remain unchanged (Centrebet is drifting back in my direction after over-reacting to the TV3 debate):
-----2005 New Zealand General Election-----
Punters are invited to make their selections in the comments section. I will fix the odds shortly and display your name on the board next to your selection.
Option 2: Nat-Lab head-to-head largest party vote.
was $1.60 now $1.55 Labour
was $2.20 now $2.30 National