ELECTION BOOK UPDATE:
Labour now $1.50Now $1.45
------------ NEWS UPDATE---------------
Leaders Debate TV1, Brash-Clark head-to-head. Don fails to fire, equivocating and qualifying, allowing himself to be walked all over by the heavily made up Zombie Queen. Prebs just said "ate him alive" on the post analysis - good call. Brash almost said he would vote for her when asked by the moderator to quote their good points to each other. As far as landing punches goes - Mark Sainsbury landed more than Brash and he was being a good neutral host.
The Nats' Tax cuts are fairly tangible for that 50k+ no-kids/small family group they were targeting - but can they sell it effectively? The debate tonight would suggest Don cannot. So, I'm dropping my odds (see below).
Centrebet's new odds for next PM, sensing Brash is toast too:
LAB 41%, NAT 37%, NZF 8%, GRN 7%, UNF 2.1%, MAO 1.8%, ACT 1.4%, Don't Know 10%
Centrebet's lates odds for next PM (22/08 @ 3:40pm):
They have taken a swing to Labour. Was the Nat's tax policy a fizzer in their eyes? Was the One News poll another nail in the coffin? And just when both of our odds were finally at parity! Centrebet seems to be consistently more aggressive in their odds making and tends to react more strongly to individual events (such as polls and debates) as well as the actual wager amounts. So expect to see some more movement from them after the TV1 debate. I will change mine too as, mentioned below and elsewhere, today is crucial for National and if they fumble they will pay heavily. Labour's spin against them (Housing starts as more counter-ballast) has already begun.
Centrebet's odds (21/08) for next PM have solidified somewhat:
CLARK $1.50, BRASH $2.40, PETERS $501.00, HIDE $1001.00
Latest One News poll: (21/08):
LAB 45%, NAT 37%, NZF 6%, GRN 6%, UNF 1%, MAO 1%, ACT 2%, DST 1%.
Clark's preferred PM rating still steady, 43%, but Brash has taken a dip after quite a long haul up to respectability to 21%. This is telling. If the Nats are to win their leader must must be footing it with the PM, not having half their own side wanting someone else. The tax cut allocation on Monday is supposed to be the feather in Don's cap. If it falls flat the odds will lengthen for National very quickly. They remain within striking distance, but the trend is ebbing away from them for the last two weeks.
-----2005 New Zealand General Election-----
Option 2: Nat-Lab head-to-head largest party vote.
was $1.55 now
was $2.30 now