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Monday, August 29, 2005

ELECTION BOOK UPDATE: Centrebet volatile: Labour $1.50 Now $1.45 - Where I've had it all week!

-------------LATEST NEWS---------------
10:40pm 31/8: Centrebet odds are actually for the party and not the leader after all:

Pay on the party that provides the prime minister following the next New Zealand general election. Pay on official result. Bets settled at the time of swearing in. All in. Win only. Singles only. Quote others.

They now only have Labour and National and have dropped NZF and Act. So now my odds (Option 2) and their's are practically identical.

Centrebet's new odds (29/08 12:30am) for next PM:
CLARK $1.28/$1.30 @12:30pm 29/8 $1.50 @12:30am 30/8
BRASH $3.25/$3.20 @12:30pm 29/8 $2.40 @12:30am 30/8
CLARK $1.45 @11:20am 30/8
BRASH $2.55 @11:20am 30/8
PETERS $1001.00
HIDE $2001.00


-------------COMMENTARY---------------
11:20am 30/8: Now Centrebet are at $1.45 for Labour! So they've ended up this morning where I've had them all week after a hell of a roller coaster ride. I think they may have been at $1.25 at one point. Brash has moved a whole dollar. I wonder what the total amount in the market is?

12:30am 30/8: What is Centrebet playing at? Huge volatility with no real extra data to justify it. So it must have
been a huge bet on Brash
that wrenched it so far back. And at $3.25 - as I have said earlier (see below) - it would have been a good bet. I wonder who it was? I, however, feeling completely vindicated, will keep my odds as is. If my book was real rather than notional I would look at counterbalancing by taking some of that action on Clark at the moment - so in a market sense they are doing the right thing (no shit!).

12:30am 29/8: Nats are pulling it back a bit after the tax cuts policy as reflected in the polling (see below). Labour will get dirty again soon and Don's Aussie advisers will tell him to start bashing Maori and he will. NZ First on the wane. After the said bashing NZF cannot hope to get more than 10% as I once predicted last month. Centrebet's odds seem very generous to Clark. Brash is a good bet at this point ($3.25). My "head-to-head" (Option 2) difference to Centrebet's "next PM" is because the Greens look likely to get over 5% while National has no such partner and is less likely to form a government even if it ends up with more party votes. It is still fairly unstable - my odds remain unchanged until more evidence of the Nat's selling of their tax policy comes in.

-------------CURRENT ODDS--------------
-----2005 New Zealand General Election-----

Punters are invited to make their selections in the comments section.

HEAD TO HEAD

Option 2: Nat-Lab head-to-head largest party vote.
$1.45 Labour
$2.60 National

PARTY VOTE

Polls: M=Molesworth&Featherston's averaged poll-of-polls. S=Sunday Star-Times, H=NZ Herald, N=National Business Review. 3=TV3 1= TV One, F=Fairfax TS=Tim Selwyn's prediction.

Odds...Partyvote %...2002 election/poll&date...Punters
Option 3: Labour party vote.
$15.00 50%+
$03.20 45-49.99% 107/8 H14/8 121/8 H26/8
$01.60 40-44.99% 2002 H29/7 N29/7 S31/7 F13/8 322/8 N26/8 S28/8 128/8
$02.20 35-39.99% M22/7 TS26/7 328/7
$05.50 30-34.99%
$33.00 25-29.99%
$66.00 20-24.99%
$99.00 00-19.99%
Option 4: National party vote.
$20.00 50%+
$04.50 45-49.99%
$02.60 40-44.99% M22/7 S31/7 107/8 F13/8 128/8
$01.70 35-39.99% TS26/7328/7 H29/7 N29/7 H13/8 121/8 322/8 H26/8 S28/8
$02.50 30-34.99% N26/8
$09.00 25-29.99%
$50.00 20-24.99% 2002
$66.00 00-19.99%
Option 5: NZ First party vote.
$04.00 10%+ 2002 TS26/7
$04.00 09-09.99% M22/7
$02.80 08-08.99% N29/7 322/8 N26/8
$02.00 07-07.99% 328/7 H29/7 S31/7 H14/8
$01.90 06-06.99% F13/8 121/8 H26/8 S28/8
$02.20 05-05.99% 107/8 128/8
$02.50 00-04.99%
Option 6: Greens party vote.
$04.00 10%+
$03.50 09-09.99%
$02.00 08-08.99% N26/8 S28/8
$01.80 07-07.99% 2002 TS26/7 N29/7 322/8 128/8
$02.00 06-06.99% M22/7 328/7 F13/8 121/8 H26/8
$03.00 05-05.99% S31/7
$07.50 04-04.99% H14/8
$15.00 03-03.99% H29/7 107/8
$50.00 02-02.99%
$80.00 01-01.99%
$99.00 00-00.99%
Option 7: Maori party vote.
$07.00 05%+
$03.50 04-04.99%
$01.90 03-03.99% TS26/07 H29/7
$01.80 02-02.99% 328/7 H14/8 H26/8
$03.50 01-01.99% M22/7 N29/7 S31/7 107/8 F13/8 121/8 322/8 N26/8 128/8
$20.00 00-00.99%
Option 8: United Future party vote.
$33.00 10%+
$33.00 09-09.99%
$25.00 08-08.99%
$18.00 07-07.99%
$12.00 06-06.99% 2002
$08.00 05-05.99%
$03.50 04-04.99%
$02.50 03-03.99% N29/7
$01.80 02-02.99% TS26/7 F13/8 322/8 N26/8
$02.00 01-01.99% M22/7 328/7 H29/7 S31/7 107/8 121/8 H26/8 128/8
$15.00 00-00.99% H14/8
Option 9: Act party vote.
$33.00 10%+
$30.00 09-09.99%
$22.00 08-08.99%
$09.00 07-07.99% 2002
$06.00 06-06.99%
$04.50 05-05.99%
$03.00 04-04.99%
$02.00 03-03.99% TS26/7
$01.90 02-02.99% 107/8 121/8 N26/8 S28/8 128/8
$03.00 01-01.99% M22/7 328/7 H29/7 N29/7 SST31/7 F13/8 H14/8 322/8
$15.00 00-00.99% H26/8
Option 10: Progressives party vote.
$20.00 05%+
$18.00 04-04.99%
$09.00 03-03.99%
$03.50 02-02.99%
$01.55 01-01.99% 2002
$01.35 00-00.99% M22/7 TS26/7 328/7 H29/7 S31/7 107/8 H14/8 H26/8
Option 11: All others party vote.
$02.00 05%+
$02.00 04-04.99% 2002
$01.90 03-03.99% TS26/7
$03.00 02-02.99%
$20.00 01-01.99% H29/7 H26/8 128/8
$50.00 00-00.99% M22/7
--------------------------------------

Bet closes: 16/09/2005 Results: are for election night % of total vote (excluding informals). TAB disclaimer: this is simulated only.

1 Comments:

At 29/8/05 10:19 pm, Blogger peterquixote said...

yous dont supposed to laffer at me but i put all the fascists redneck money on AIRNZ, the fascists like
ACT we no money fascuists dont pleased about Bush petrol money, we wanted to buy Awaroa partner, and get stuck right in there,
some these boys disgraceful,

 

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