ELECTION DATE: PM: 30 July "I can safely assure you there won’t be.”
UPDATE 21 June:
Scoop reports on PM's Monday press conference: “The date will be announced in due course, but clearly some party's, having missed all the signs that there might be an early election last time, jumped the gun this time and predicted there’d be one at the end of July. I can safely assure you there won’t be.” This is the first definitive statement on that date, delivered on the date it would be due, therefore we have to take her word for it.
UPDATE 20 June:
30 July announced possibly before parliament gets underway Tuesday (7-1). Realistically slipping rapidly away. It is technically possible to call an election for 30 July for another fortnight (and for 23 July for another week), but would be highly unlikely.
The perfect storm of government ineptitude of minor and major controversies (Benson-Pope, Graham Kelly, budget tax cuts, Kyoto deficit) still continues and only an intelligent PM would have the balls to call it for July 30. I think they may be running scared at this point and may choose to weather it. If Labour think these things will go away and somehow it will be a sweet ride to Sept., they are taking risks - not playing it safe as some would think. The poll jolts have helped energise the Labour ground troops so that is actually a positive for them. Labour has not been able to tease out any substantial policy from National so far but the Nats have scored a few hits with it's simplistic/minimalistic but effective campaign to date.
The recent polls have provided every reason to put the election off to as late as possible within most Labour circles from what I can fathom. Labour politicians will appear at a big Union conference next week that they had previously expressed little interest in attending (a little dickie bird tells me) - so what does this mean? It is rational to think that today is a red letter day for the "early" scenario where a serious high-level appraisal must take place, then 11 July (the Monday after we beat the Lions) is the red letter day for a 20 August election, and the clock is really starting to run down after that.
They assume the Nats have peaked, or will shortly, and will not cement their gains. Dangerous assumptions.
Option 1: Date of the next New Zealand General Election.
Date.......Odds.......(Relevant event)...... Punters
23 July.....99-1 SageNZ(old), John Armstrong?, SundayNews
(3 years after last election)
30 July.....50-1 John Armstrong?,Adolf F, Dave, Jono,RodneyHide, AntarcticLemur
6 August...15-1 (NZ v. SA, Capetown)
13 August..15-1 (NZ v. Aust, Sydney)
20 August..3-1 TuataraLeft, Asher, Audrey Young
27 August..50-1 (NZ v. SA)
3 Sept......55-1 (NZ v. Aust) Berend deBoer
10 Sept.....4-1 Spanblather,Simon Pound, Berend deBoer, Kate
17 Sept.....3-1 Greg Stephens, Vernon Small?, Michael, Molesworth&Featherston, DavidPFarrar, SageNZ(new), AshleyClarkson, Phantasm., Kevin List
24 Sept.....66-1 (School Holidays)
Bet closes: At start of statement from Prime Minister or Governor-General (whichever is first) confirming [Option 1 event] has been set.
Bet paid: "Writ day." (Governor-General orders election to be held).
All odds subject to change. No refunds.