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Monday, June 20, 2005

ELECTION DATE: PM: 30 July "I can safely assure you there won’t be.”

UPDATE 21 June:
Scoop reports on PM's Monday press conference: “The date will be announced in due course, but clearly some party's, having missed all the signs that there might be an early election last time, jumped the gun this time and predicted there’d be one at the end of July. I can safely assure you there won’t be.” This is the first definitive statement on that date, delivered on the date it would be due, therefore we have to take her word for it.
UPDATE 20 June:
30 July announced possibly before parliament gets underway Tuesday (7-1). Realistically slipping rapidly away. It is technically possible to call an election for 30 July for another fortnight (and for 23 July for another week), but would be highly unlikely.

The perfect storm of government ineptitude of minor and major controversies (Benson-Pope, Graham Kelly, budget tax cuts, Kyoto deficit) still continues and only an intelligent PM would have the balls to call it for July 30. I think they may be running scared at this point and may choose to weather it. If Labour think these things will go away and somehow it will be a sweet ride to Sept., they are taking risks - not playing it safe as some would think. The poll jolts have helped energise the Labour ground troops so that is actually a positive for them. Labour has not been able to tease out any substantial policy from National so far but the Nats have scored a few hits with it's simplistic/minimalistic but effective campaign to date.

The recent polls have provided every reason to put the election off to as late as possible within most Labour circles from what I can fathom. Labour politicians will appear at a big Union conference next week that they had previously expressed little interest in attending (a little dickie bird tells me) - so what does this mean? It is rational to think that today is a red letter day for the "early" scenario where a serious high-level appraisal must take place, then 11 July (the Monday after we beat the Lions) is the red letter day for a 20 August election, and the clock is really starting to run down after that.

They assume the Nats have peaked, or will shortly, and will not cement their gains. Dangerous assumptions.

Option 1: Date of the next New Zealand General Election.

Date.......Odds.......(Relevant event)...... Punters

23 July.....99-1 SageNZ(old), John Armstrong?, SundayNews
(3 years after last election)
30 July.....50-1 John Armstrong?,Adolf F, Dave, Jono,RodneyHide, AntarcticLemur
6 August...15-1 (NZ v. SA, Capetown)
13 August..15-1 (NZ v. Aust, Sydney)
20 August..3-1 TuataraLeft, Asher, Audrey Young
27 August..50-1 (NZ v. SA)
3 Sept......55-1 (NZ v. Aust) Berend deBoer
10 Sept.....4-1 Spanblather,Simon Pound, Berend deBoer, Kate
17 Sept.....3-1 Greg Stephens, Vernon Small?, Michael, Molesworth&Featherston, DavidPFarrar, SageNZ(new), AshleyClarkson, Phantasm., Kevin List
24 Sept.....66-1 (School Holidays)

Bet closes: At start of statement from Prime Minister or Governor-General (whichever is first) confirming [Option 1 event] has been set.
Bet paid: "Writ day." (Governor-General orders election to be held).
All odds subject to change. No refunds.


At 20/6/05 5:28 am, Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

They'd be foolish to let Hide et al. score more body hits be delaying the election longer than necessary.

Potential upcoming scandals: the speeding convoy trial, multiple health sector scandals being uncovered by McCully, possibly more on Doonegate, the BePop Police inquiry....

And the longer they wait, the better prepared the Maori Party is.

At 20/6/05 12:33 pm, Blogger t selwyn said...

I couldn't agree more. Death by a thousand scandals. Steven Ching. Leaky buildings. 111. All the ministers who have been fired and the ones that should be (starting with Hawkins)....

Once the media start with "embattled leader," "scandal-prone government," etc. National doesn't look so bad. If they call the election now most, if not all, of that is negated as National will announce it's policies and the news will be Labour attacking them rather than them being on the defensive and dragged down by one cock-up after another. Drawing it out makes Labour look bad and gives oxygen to the opposition.

"We've got a long recess coming up where we can start our campaign" is what I think the PM said on One News this afternoon. That would link in with the Union meeting next week I mentioned. That recess begins Thursday night when parliament rises. I would have thought valedictories etc. would be held at some point. Maybe I'm just a bookie rationalising/contemplating taking a bath on 30 July!

At 20/6/05 9:19 pm, Anonymous Kevin said...

Howdy, not sure who to enter but put Kevin List (Scoop) down for 17 September as the election day.

At 20/6/05 9:21 pm, Anonymous kevin said...

That should be have been (how) to enter this election lottery!

At 21/6/05 7:00 am, Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

p.s. did you ever do that Iwi democracy post? If you email me it at antarcticlemur@gmail.com I'll keep it ready for when I have more time to look into the details (2nd week of July at this stage).


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