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Sunday, May 01, 2005


Option 1: Date of the next New Zealand General Election.

Date.......Odds.......(Relevant event)...... Punters

18 June....150-1 (Otago v. Lions)
25 June....33-1
2 July......50-1 (NZ v. Lions) Keith Ng
9 July......50-1 (NZ v. Lions)
16 July.....8-1 Maori Party (Opotiki Branch Chairman)
23 July.....9-1 SageNZ, John Armstrong?
(3 years after last election)
30 July.....3-1 John Armstrong?,Adolf F, Dave, Jono,RodneyHide
6 August...6-1 (NZ v. SA, Capetown)
13 August..6-1 (NZ v. Aust, Sydney)
20 August..5-1
27 August..33-1 (NZ v. SA)
3 Sept......40-1 (NZ v. Aust) Berend deBoer
10 Sept.....18-1 Spanblather,Simon Pound,Berend deBoer
17 Sept.....20-1 Greg Stephens, Vernon Small?,Michael
24 Sept.....66-1 (School Holidays)

Bet closes: At start of statement from Prime Minister or Governor-General (whichever is first) confirming [Option 1 event] has been set.
Bet paid: "Writ day." (Governor-General orders election to be held).
(Names of punters making their predictions may be added - please leave your prediction in the comments section.)
All odds subject to change. No refunds.

NB: Centrebet in Australia will take real wagers on our election result from the end of this week at the earliest. I'm picking they will set in the $1.10-$1.20 band for Labour forming the next government at this point, and rapidly shortening as National's weaknesses (it's people, their ideas and their track record) become apparent. But over $1.10 admits that there is still room to loose should some Orewa III combine with a Tamihere II. Will post their odds when available.


At 1/5/05 8:01 pm, Blogger Genius said...

There will always be a few people who will bet on their team winning even when its totally improbable. the assumption of rationality of betting public breaks down when you start talking about tiny minorities of the population betting on outsiders.
And besides that the bookies have to fit a margin in there somehow.
Having said that there has been a world war once ever 50 years or so (once every 16 or so cycles?) or some other catastrophic event - I remember some statistician saying one could make money betting on very unlikely catastrophies as long as you dont mind waiting several lifetimes.

At 1/5/05 8:51 pm, Blogger t selwyn said...

I can't offer inter-generational odds on catastrophies - that's life insurance territory - I once sold accidental death cover but that really doesn't make horrific global events my field (although my flat did run an Iraqi invasion and war end pool - still going) so it's not really my field.

As for the election date, some good information is flowing through now and by the end of the week I think we will have their top three dates.

Scenario 1 "Force Majeure": actually any old excuse like last time, and probably 16 or 23 July.

Scenario 2 "Full Term": 30 July. The "moral" or "conventional" date.

Scenario 3 "Late": 20 August onwards, only if they think the opposition will peak at scenario 2 and all other signs are good - every single one of them - with hints of some internal feuding within National under the strain of inevitable defeat/policy release debarcle being evident immediately after the Budget.

At 1/5/05 8:53 pm, Blogger t selwyn said...

Genius: What's your date?

At 3/5/05 11:41 pm, Blogger t selwyn said...

On Willy Jackson's Eye to Eye programme Chris Trotsky backed a July election and Maori TV's news director backed late August.

At 10/5/05 11:33 pm, Blogger t selwyn said...

TV3's Brent Garner has said that the government's tertiary student savings policy (middle class tax-break policy) would be released in August "in time for the election." Really?

At 11/5/05 9:36 am, Blogger span said...

wasn't it released yesterday? (and it sucks btw) maybe they are pulling the election forward...

At 11/5/05 10:56 am, Blogger t selwyn said...

I think the discussion document was issued yesterday but the actual policy decision will be in August. They are so pulling it forward, I've always been of the June/July opinion.


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