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Friday, May 13, 2005

ELECTION DATE UPDATE: 30 July now 3-1 favourite

Option 1: Date of the next New Zealand General Election.

Date.......Odds.......(Relevant event)...... Punters

18 June....150-1 (Otago v. Lions)
25 June....33-1
2 July......50-1 (NZ v. Lions) Keith Ng
9 July......50-1 (NZ v. Lions)
16 July.....8-1 Maori Party (Opotiki Branch Chairman)
23 July.....9-1 SageNZ, John Armstrong?, SundayNews
(3 years after last election)
30 July.....3-1 John Armstrong?,Adolf F, Dave, Jono,RodneyHide
6 August...6-1 (NZ v. SA, Capetown)
13 August..6-1 (NZ v. Aust, Sydney)
20 August..5-1 TuataraLeft, Asher
27 August..33-1 (NZ v. SA)
3 Sept......40-1 (NZ v. Aust) Berend deBoer
10 Sept.....18-1 Spanblather,Simon Pound, Berend deBoer, Kate
17 Sept.....18-1 Greg Stephens, Vernon Small?, Michael, Molesworth&Featherston
24 Sept.....66-1 (School Holidays)

Bet closes: At start of statement from Prime Minister or Governor-General (whichever is first) confirming [Option 1 event] has been set.
Bet paid: "Writ day." (Governor-General orders election to be held).
(Names of punters making their predictions may be added - please leave your prediction in the comments section.)
All odds subject to change. No refunds.

It seems, very generally speaking, that the Labour supporters and left wing punters trust Labour to call a late election as they have been promising and right wingers do not.

NB: Centrebet in Australia will take real wagers on our election result soon. I'm picking they will set in the $1.10-$1.20 band (surely no more than $1.30) for Labour forming the next government at this point, and rapidly shortening as National's weaknesses (it's people, their ideas and their track record) become apparent. But over $1.10 admits that there is still room to loose should some Orewa III combine with a Tamihere II. Will post their odds when available.


At 14/5/05 7:46 pm, Blogger Tuatara left said...

May I take the 20th of August, cheers.

At 15/5/05 11:04 pm, Blogger Asher said...

20th of August for me too

At 16/5/05 5:00 pm, Blogger Kate said...

10th sept. I have a gut feeling that it will be spet 3rd but I am away so it cant be.

At 16/5/05 10:44 pm, Blogger span said...

Cullen was having a bob each way on ZB tonight - saying that late July was actually three years and thus a July election would not be early, but also saying that his personal preference was to shift the cycle out of winter and back into spring (something about the cold in the south and cold weather meaning you get a lower turnout).

i assume the odds on early elections will change after the Budget, given all the conjecture that they will announce straight afterwards? My theory is that they will either announce on Friday or Monday, for July, otherwise it will go to September. Not based on any knowledge, just a hunch.

At 16/5/05 11:32 pm, Blogger t selwyn said...

Span: Thanks for that info on Cullen. Winter doesn't really suit anyone, but like last time they will probably see too many risks in letting it drift out to their preferred spring date.

Yes, after the Budget there will be a lot or rumour and I will have to act fast to adjust the odds.


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