ELECTION DATE UPDATE: 30 July now 3-1 favourite
Option 1: Date of the next New Zealand General Election.
Date.......Odds.......(Relevant event)...... Punters
18 June....150-1 (Otago v. Lions)
2 July......50-1 (NZ v. Lions) Keith Ng
9 July......50-1 (NZ v. Lions)
16 July.....8-1 Maori Party (Opotiki Branch Chairman)
23 July.....9-1 SageNZ, John Armstrong?, SundayNews
(3 years after last election)
30 July.....3-1 John Armstrong?,Adolf F, Dave, Jono,RodneyHide
6 August...6-1 (NZ v. SA, Capetown)
13 August..6-1 (NZ v. Aust, Sydney)
20 August..5-1 TuataraLeft, Asher
27 August..33-1 (NZ v. SA)
3 Sept......40-1 (NZ v. Aust) Berend deBoer
10 Sept.....18-1 Spanblather,Simon Pound, Berend deBoer, Kate
17 Sept.....18-1 Greg Stephens, Vernon Small?, Michael, Molesworth&Featherston
24 Sept.....66-1 (School Holidays)
Bet closes: At start of statement from Prime Minister or Governor-General (whichever is first) confirming [Option 1 event] has been set.
Bet paid: "Writ day." (Governor-General orders election to be held).
(Names of punters making their predictions may be added - please leave your prediction in the comments section.)
All odds subject to change. No refunds.
It seems, very generally speaking, that the Labour supporters and left wing punters trust Labour to call a late election as they have been promising and right wingers do not.
NB: Centrebet in Australia will take real wagers on our election result soon. I'm picking they will set in the $1.10-$1.20 band (surely no more than $1.30) for Labour forming the next government at this point, and rapidly shortening as National's weaknesses (it's people, their ideas and their track record) become apparent. But over $1.10 admits that there is still room to loose should some Orewa III combine with a Tamihere II. Will post their odds when available.