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Friday, May 27, 2005

ELECTION DATE: 30 July tightens again. Now 2-1.

If 30 July is on (as speculated about by the NZPA which also says the rolls close for printing purposes on 17 June) then expect the announcement to be made at the post-Cabinet press conference of the 20th of June or at the weekend beforehand. The following day Parliament sits and the government will open up with both barrels over those three sitting days (as the next month no sitting days are scheduled at any rate).
Other signals will be a top-level meeting between Williams and Clark perhaps at the weekend before and before that even urgency being taken to pass the budget - or that might be just too obvious! The PM's travel itinerary would also be an indicator. Where is it?

Option 1: Date of the next New Zealand General Election.

Date.......Odds.......(Relevant event)...... Punters

2 July......99-1 (NZ v. Lions) Keith Ng
9 July......99-1 (NZ v. Lions)
16 July.....9-1 Maori Party (Opotiki Branch Chairman)
23 July.....7-1 SageNZ, John Armstrong?, SundayNews
(3 years after last election)
30 July.....2-1 John Armstrong?,Adolf F, Dave, Jono,RodneyHide, AntarcticLemur
6 August...6-1 (NZ v. SA, Capetown)
13 August..6-1 (NZ v. Aust, Sydney)
20 August..5-1 TuataraLeft, Asher
27 August..40-1 (NZ v. SA)
3 Sept......50-1 (NZ v. Aust) Berend deBoer
10 Sept.....17-1 Spanblather,Simon Pound, Berend deBoer, Kate
17 Sept.....17-1 Greg Stephens, Vernon Small?, Michael, Molesworth&Featherston
24 Sept.....66-1 (School Holidays)

Bet closes: At start of statement from Prime Minister or Governor-General (whichever is first) confirming [Option 1 event] has been set.
Bet paid: "Writ day." (Governor-General orders election to be held).
(Names of punters making their predictions may be added - please leave your prediction in the comments section.)
All odds subject to change. No refunds.

NB: Centrebet in Australia will take real wagers on our election result soon... so they say. I'm picking they will set in the $1.10-$1.20 band (surely no more than $1.30) for Labour forming the next government at this point. Will post their odds when available.


At 27/5/05 10:00 am, Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

I'd say July 30.


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