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Tuesday, May 17, 2005

ELECTION DATE: 30 July shortens to 5-2 ($3.50)

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UPDATE:
If 30 July is on then expect the announcement to be made at the post-Cabinet press conference of the 20th of June. The following day Parliament sits and the government will open up with both barrels over those three sitting days (as the next month no sitting days are scheduled at any rate).
Other signals will be a top-level meeting between Williams and Clark perhaps at the weekend before and before that even urgency being taken to pass the budget - or that might be just too obvious!
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UPDATE:
Dr Cullen has again asserted a strong preference for a September date. It is his job to dampen expectations and talk things down, but with such a dud (squandered opportunity) budget it will be less likely to be immediately. Odds have been shortened accordingly.

It seems, very generally speaking, that the Labour supporters and left wing punters trust Labour to call a late election as they have been promising and most right wingers do not. Phil Goff has stated in parliament that they will have a September poll, the Herald's John Armstrong is picking July, Molesworth & Featherston, September, Rodney Hide, July 30th, Sunday News 23 July.

Cabinet Minister, David Benson-Pope's, stand-down and other unfolding inquiries, resignations, bail-outs etc. have impacted on the odds. They tend to make an early election more likely as Labour seeks to capitalise on the Lions tour to freeze out opposition parties in the media and use the budget as their full election manifesto. They cannot assume that the opposition will run out of steam (and muck) in the lead up to the campaign proper - quite the opposite.
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Option 1: Date of the next New Zealand General Election.

Date.......Odds.......(Relevant event)...... Punters

25 June....50-1
2 July......66-1 (NZ v. Lions) Keith Ng
9 July......66-1 (NZ v. Lions)
16 July.....7-1 Maori Party (Opotiki Branch Chairman)
23 July.....6-1 SageNZ, John Armstrong?, SundayNews
(3 years after last election)
30 July.....5-2 John Armstrong?,Adolf F, Dave, Jono,RodneyHide
6 August...6-1 (NZ v. SA, Capetown)
13 August..6-1 (NZ v. Aust, Sydney)
20 August..5-1 TuataraLeft, Asher
27 August..40-1 (NZ v. SA)
3 Sept......50-1 (NZ v. Aust) Berend deBoer
10 Sept.....16-1 Spanblather,Simon Pound, Berend deBoer, Kate
17 Sept.....16-1 Greg Stephens, Vernon Small?, Michael, Molesworth&Featherston
24 Sept.....66-1 (School Holidays)

Bet closes: At start of statement from Prime Minister or Governor-General (whichever is first) confirming [Option 1 event] has been set.
Bet paid: "Writ day." (Governor-General orders election to be held).
(Names of punters making their predictions may be added - please leave your prediction in the comments section.)
All odds subject to change. No refunds.


NB: Centrebet in Australia will take real wagers on our election result soon. I'm picking they will set in the $1.10-$1.20 band (surely no more than $1.30) for Labour forming the next government at this point. Will post their odds when available.

2 Comments:

At 20/5/05 2:54 pm, Blogger Simon Pound said...

It looks like I'm right mate, did you hear Cullen last night tell Sainsbury that it would be mid September?

 
At 20/5/05 3:07 pm, Blogger t selwyn said...

SP:
No. I'll have to find the transcript. Russell Brown has advised me that Cullen said to Sainsbury that the budget will be passed in August sometime and they will go after that.

I'm going to have to shorten the two likely September dates. The budget's a bit of a fizzer too - I can't see them really making too much hay out of that. If they had a bold budget they would go early. I still think they will but in this market I am constrained by the facts.

 

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