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Wednesday, April 27, 2005

NZ General Election date - BOOK NOW OPEN

Our ridiculous Westminster system means the date of the general election is in the hands of the Prime Minister alone. She could announce that she has just seen the Governor-General and set a date at this very minute. This means a great deal of speculation as the last possible date of 24 September draws near. The Electoral Commission needs 6-8 weeks to organise a "snap" election, but a "normal" election should only take 4 weeks (always being on a Saturday).

IMPORTANT DATES/METHODOLOGY:

Today's date + 4 weeks (min) = 28 May is the earliest possible date.

The Crown's budget is set down for introduction on the 19th of May and will be passed sometime in June. Either they will announce right after it is introduced (25 June option) or wait till it passes (16 July+ option).

Labour Party President, the thuggish Mike Williams, has boasted that he will be the one setting the date and he wouldn't want to go earlier than September - which is of course a load of smokescreen bollocks - they will not risk leaving it that late. They are not complacent.

Our Glorious Leader insists that they will go "a full term" which is actually up on 27 July. Like last time they will go as early as practical - less chance of Tamahereisms staining the good linen.

Economically bouyant, though underlyingly weak and propped up by immigration, the only way for the economy at the moment is down, with the Reserve Bank hinting another rate rise may occur later in the year.

All Black tests against the Lions occur on 2 and 9 July, NZ Maori v. Lions on 11 June, AB's v. Boks on 27 August, and AB's v. Aussies on 3 September. Traditionally tests and an election do not mix... the "Mungo no think two things at same time" idea, ie. the big parties' key constituents. If we win the series on 9 July they could announce the election in the midst of the unbounded fervour of patriotism (6 August+ option).

Labour is ready now whilst the others are still farting around.

TV ad space is supposedly booked solid for the next few months so that will favour Labour as the ad spend on their dodgy Families Commission and Working for Families etc. is filling that space, as the lolly scramble budget will fill the news space.

As time draws closer to September the effectiveness and advantage of surprise diminishes.

Politicians want to be put out of their misery and stress sooner rather than later - watch their agonising when the results on the night are delayed by even half an hour.

So with all that in mind let us open a notional book.

There are now 17 possible dates.

DATE.......ODDS.......(relevant event)...... PUNTERS

4 June.....200-1 (Queen's Birthday Weekend)
11 June....66-1 (Maori v. Lions)
18 June....50-1 (Otago v. Lions)
25 June....20-1
2 July......33-1 (NZ v. Lions)
9 July......33-1 (NZ v. Lions)
16 July.....6-1
23 July.....5-1 SageNZ, John Armstrong?
30 July.....6-1 (3 years after last election) John Armstrong?
6 August...6-1 (NZ v. SA, Capetown)
13 August..6-1 (NZ v. Aust, Sydney)
20 August..5-1
27 August..20-1 (NZ v. SA)
3 Sept......20-1 (NZ v. Aust)
10 Sept.....12-1
17 Sept.....15-1 Greg Stephens, Vernon Small?
24 Sept.....25-1

(Names of punters making their predictions may be added - please leave your prediction in the comments section.)

All odds subject to change. No refunds.

NEWSFLASH: From Centrebet in Australia to my enquiry as to will they operate betting on our election:
"we will only cover the Federal(National).  Will not be available before the end of next week.
Yours sincerely,
Jay
Centrebet"
Updates will follow. Thoughtful speculation from the Greens with other links here.

26 Comments:

At 28/4/05 1:17 am, Blogger t selwyn said...

If you want your mind blown with election odds see the oddschecker website for the upcoming British election.

 
At 28/4/05 3:36 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is TAB betting available Tim?

 
At 28/4/05 3:53 pm, Blogger t selwyn said...

We wish! Check ot the oddschecker site to see how it should be done.

 
At 28/4/05 9:07 pm, Blogger Icehawk said...

Given sufficient liquidity (that's "lots of people betting", not "lots of beers before betting") bookies tend to be better than pollsters at getting elections right.

So I'll be keeping a close eye on centrebet - but I don't think I'd want to try and beat their odds.

 
At 29/4/05 1:43 am, Blogger t selwyn said...

They always seem to get it right. Strange how large amounts of money suddenly focus people's skills.

I will keep a watch out for other bookies offering odds - but centrebet is the only one I can find - most of them have Australian Federal elections, and Betfair even have which month the Canadian election will occur - sort of what I'm doing. The French EU Treaty vote looks very close.

But as for us the biggest bet on a Labour win will be Don Brash's - his retirement package. I mean that's err, the, ahhh, rational option that, err maximises the available resources with, err, the optimal outcome, ahh, based on the high certainty levels inherent in the, err, methodologically sound, market-based model...

 
At 29/4/05 8:04 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I've seen a list of the three dates being considered, interesting to see what odds you've put those at!

 
At 29/4/05 9:59 pm, Blogger t selwyn said...

What you talkin' 'bout, Willis?!

If you have seen the "list of the three dates," Anon, then you know what my odds are, they are listed above.

If this is Mike Williams, you are an insider and barred from betting. If you are a quasi- insider (as you insinuate), Anon, then you may participate, but for heaven sakes give us a hint at the sacred dates. Are the three dates' odds accurately reflected? Are the three dates dependent upon certain thresholds or outcomes? Explain your thinking so the odds can be adjusted. I'm not Nixon, I can't bug everything.

As the Tumekeisator Agency Board's slogan goes:
YOU KNOW OUR ODDS - NOW CHEAT THEM.

 
At 30/4/05 5:13 pm, Blogger Greg Stephens said...

Kia Ora, I'll go with 17 September :-)

 
At 30/4/05 10:40 pm, Blogger t selwyn said...

Greg, you are classified as a quasi-insider with your "Wellington Regional Rep on the Young Labour Executive" credentials (you poor bugger - it all sounds self-inflicted).

I will adjust the odds accordingly, but let's hear some of the reasoning.

 
At 1/5/05 11:11 am, Blogger Greg Stephens said...

Reasoning:
I don't want to be electioneering during winter!
Even though there is a chance of an early election, currently every time Brash opens his mouth he loses votes. Consequently, giving him more time will result in a higher Labour vote. Which is what Helen Clark obviously wants.

 
At 1/5/05 11:43 am, Blogger Greg Stephens said...

Oh yeah, I'm aware that I previously speculated on an early election, but I think the chances of that have gone down somewhat since then.

 
At 1/5/05 12:14 pm, Blogger Adolf Fiinkensein said...

July 30th is my pick. Then the spin will be that the BB has "gone full term" No prem baby, this election.

 
At 1/5/05 2:18 pm, Blogger Michael said...

I'm also going with 17 September.

You fail to note that 24 September is the first weekend of a school holiday and therefore usually another no-go.

 
At 1/5/05 2:39 pm, Blogger Dave said...

I Pick either 23 or 30 July, prob 30 July. Will explain on ny blog later

 
At 1/5/05 4:09 pm, Blogger t selwyn said...

Michael: I have heard of the holiday scenario, that is partly why the odds are fairly long (and will be lengthening soon at this rate).

Dave: I'll put you down for the 30 July. It is the "moral" cut-off point as far as promises of "we'll do a full term" go. I look forward to your explanation.

Greg: The top brass are cruel masters. I suspect they'll have you toiling with frost underfoot.

 
At 1/5/05 5:04 pm, Blogger span said...

I think it's going to be September, but not the 24th. One of the big education unions has their Annual Meeting that weekend I think, and that would mean 100s of teachers away from home and at a conference.

Put me down for Sept 10th please. My reasoning is that Clark will want to go as close to full term as possible, unless a readymade crap excuse presents itself like last time, and she might decide to gamble that good outcomes in the tests by the All Blacks in the previous two weekends could flow on to advantage the Govt.

Tell me, do you still like ice cream? :-)

 
At 1/5/05 5:35 pm, Blogger t selwyn said...

Span(ner): Do I still like myself? ;-)

 
At 1/5/05 5:49 pm, Blogger Jono said...

Hey I have to say I really do think she's going early, but what could be considered a full term I'll also pick July 30th. Its the date to go with cause she won't go for the next two weeks after that, August 20 would be another good pick, but no I'll stick with July 30th

 
At 1/5/05 6:58 pm, Blogger span said...

tim - phew, i was a bit worried you might respond by calling me a fuckwit ;-)

 
At 1/5/05 7:20 pm, Blogger t selwyn said...

Span: Only if you are one. Being a heavy-duty Lefty is not much of a hint as to your identity as it applies to almost everyone from that great and golden epoch of our eternal rememberance.

 
At 1/5/05 9:37 pm, Anonymous Keith Ng said...

Alright, I guess I'd better put my money where my mouth is. 2nd of July, at odds of 33:1. I'd actually like to hedge my bets on 25-06, 09-07 and 16-07 as well, but that'd be a pansy thing to do. Putting my money on a 33:1 longshot is much more fun.

Why 2nd of July? That's what I heard. I got no rhyme nor reason to go with it, just that it'll be announced immediately after the Budget, and it'll be 6 weeks after.

 
At 1/5/05 10:18 pm, Blogger t selwyn said...

Keith: I like the reasoning except for the rugby test clash. I mean several policeman are being charged with shuttling the PM at great speed just to get to a rugby game. Oh, sure, she said she would rather be reading a book, but she knows the sacred, hallowed nature of the national game in the minds of the prols.

You might get higher odds still.

 
At 1/5/05 11:54 pm, Blogger sagenz said...

thanks for the link. The other factor which indicates a pre august election is the fact the six who got charged because of the rugby are in court on the first of August. I would be very surpised if there will not be egg on its face after that case. would you let the 7th offender walk?

 
At 2/5/05 12:33 am, Blogger t selwyn said...

No, I most certainly would not!

Kia ora, Segenz.

She would get a visit from kindly Mr Plod and his trusty notebook, ever at the ready.

My, my, I was having a chat about just that subject this afternoon. Thank you for providing that date. Watch out for critical press articles about this sort of behaivour closer to now than August.

Thinking very little of this government, I would not be at all surprised if they slither in a vote at the earliest tenable moment, ie. 16 July. That's right, before any "moral" date. That is why it is at such short odds.

 
At 2/5/05 6:49 pm, Blogger Simon Pound said...

Gidday Tim.

Put me down for 10 September. That is the most likely date from September.

If they do not go to September then it will be August 20.

Any earlier than that and they will recieve the biggest thrashing ever next election when they would have to call it mid-winter.

I have no inside knowledge but my tea leaves told me so.

 
At 2/5/05 11:35 pm, Blogger t selwyn said...

Simon, you're down for the September 10. Not a bad "late" date, but your tea leaves must of had some mushies in them for you to think they will risk lasting that long. I don't credit them with the balls to do it.

The Labour leadership will only start caring about the next election once this one is over and the dust settles. If it's a precarious coalition in the aftermath it will just provide them with a ready-made excuse to pull the pin at the most convenient time.

 

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