Week before Zimbabwe crisis: when will South Africa move?

Because we could not conceive of anything less than democracy, Mugabe's attempted murder of it will seem apalling to us. But still he must go through the voting process and the critical mandate it gives. The Presidential run-off election is on the 27th.

Association of Zimbabwe Journalists report:
"The MDC will never be allowed to rule this country - never ever," Mugabe told local business people in Zimbabwe's second city Bulawayo, referring to the opposition Movement for Democratic Change.
[...]
"We will never allow an event like an election reverse our independence, our sovereignty, our sweat and all that we fought for ... all that our comrades died fighting for."
[...]
"Only God who appointed me will remove me - not the MDC, not the British."

Oh dear, it is going to have to be like that - isn't it, Cde Bob. Well the people who voted the last two times certainly didn't elect him, so a claim that the appointment was at the hand of the Almighty at least makes more sense than pretending the popular will of Zimbabwe had anything to do with it. So what God was he imagining? You might find that in your case, Bob, God is a South African.

I sure hope South Africa have a snatch 'n' grab scenario planned for getting Mugabe out. Mbeki looks like the sort of incompetently weak bastard that probably doesn't - but that wouldn't stop other officials outside of The Presidency making some sort of operational contigencies based on scenarios they would have run long ago. That removal should trigger the collapse of the government: Tsvangari can announce with defecting election officials that he is the legitimate winner and South Africa can immediately recognise his government. With Mugabe (and possibly other top Zanu-PF leaders) safely in the custody of the South African government the Zanu-PF remnants would not battle on in the face of a general amnesty proclamation being the first order of Tsvangari's tenure. I say amnesty and not immunity because part of the constitutional package that was voted down in 2000 - the shock of losing that Mugabe had never before experienced and that hardened his resolve to bypass the popular mandate - was an amendment that:
would have made his government and military officials immune from prosecution for any illegal acts committed while in office. [W]

To expedite a legitimate government with democratic backing (that is largely dependent on South Africa anyway) is entirely consistent with South Africa's national interests and concern for regional stability. I would expect the republic to facilitate Mugabe's exit.

The future of Mugabe? Irrelevant as that of Ian Smith. The question is how much mayhem will he force his country to endure while it still is his country.

The journalists have to go un-named in their stories these days, as the regime clamps down on dissent, but the expatriot ones have issued a statement condemning the 65 deaths from political violence to date, and speak of the tumult:

Zanu PF candidate, President Robert Mugabe has declared that if his Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) opponent, Morgan Tsvangirai wins the run-off on June 27, not only will he refuse to give up State House, but the “war veterans” will wage war against imperial “lackeys”.

Evidently, the war has already begun in the form of horrendous beatings and murder of both known and perceived opposition supporters in the entire country. Daily news reports emanating from Zimbabwe point to the fact that Zimbabwe is a country at war.

Findings by both local and foreign observers as well as family and community accounts overwhelmingly point at Zanu PF as the sponsor of the terror that has paralyzed Zimbabwe.

We condemn this in the strongest possible terms and we join other organizations in expressing doubts of a free and fair election next Friday. We as journalists are also appalled by the continuing threats, arrests and unlawful detentions of journalists trying to do their job.

AZJ demands the following:

1.) We demand that the government immediately ceases to sponsor the terror group who include the police and army.

2.) We demand that journalists and observers carry out their work anywhere in Zimbabwe freely without threats to their lives or families

3.) We demand that all acts of violence be fully investigated and perpetrators of violence be brought before the courts

4.) We demand that the government stops the continued arbitrary arrests and detentions of all those perceived to be state enemiesThese are the sorts of people who matter now. They are the ones who will be assisting in the rigging of the election and also the ones praying for immunity should the regime collapse. Note they run the same department that has just declined to issue the opposition leader a passport.

There is so much trouble brewing here we will have to keep a close eye on this one.