Gaza situation: synchronisation of all IDF lunch breaks will lead to daily lull

The first of Israel's self-declared lunch breaks is happening right now. For three hours a day they've said they won't blow anything up. Or shoot people, or target them with chemical weapons and all the stuff they will be doing in about two hours again. A "humanitarian corridor." A gasp of air in a choke hold.

It's getting them not to invade Gaza the other 21 hours of each day that is the tricky bit.

I've just seen the UNWRA spokesman on TV saying their investigation is 99.9% sure their were no militants in the UN school compound, which the Israeli spokesman had to concede. So why then did the IDF shell a UN school? The UNWRA man said that the IDF had told residents in the neighbourhood to leave, and many sought the sanctuary of the UN school - which would be unsurprising, indeed expected.

This micro- cease-fire - a unilateral one by Israel - is a sign that the Israelis will give the Franco-Egyptian plan (backed by the US) a window. It is the most obvious way out of the engagements with Hamas and into a new cease-fire. Israel launched the cease-fire negotiation process (Israel's attack 'Operation Cast Lead') after Hamas made their opening bid (the rocket upsurge). Negotiations continue.

How can Israel demand that the Gaza government submit to a continued blockade (esp. of military equipment) when Israel can import infinity amounts of military anything straight from the US? The cease-fire terms (crossing points, monitors etc.) envisaged by Israelis will be more restrictive as far as Hamas is concerned than the previous cease-fire terms. Why should they agree to something less than they had before? If the answer to that is "because Israel will continue to pound their bones into the dust" then we won't get a cease-fire.

I heard the off-the-cuff remarks of the French Foreign Minister at the UN earlier, he seemed hopeful that Abbas and Olmert (?) and everyone would meet in Cairo for tea and iron something out - but I detected some uncertainty.

Avi Shlaim:

After eight days of bombing, with a death toll of more than 400 Palestinians and four Israelis, the gung-ho Cabinet ordered a land invasion of Gaza the consequences of which are incalculable.

No amount of military escalation can buy Israel immunity from rocket attacks from the military wing of Hamas. Despite all the death and destruction that Israel has inflicted on them, they kept up their resistance and they kept firing their rockets. This is a movement that glorifies victimhood and martyrdom.

There is simply no military solution to the conflict between the two communities. The problem with Israel's concept of security is that it denies even the most elementary security to the other community.

The only way for Israel to achieve security is not through shooting but through talks with Hamas, which has repeatedly declared its readiness to negotiate a long-term ceasefire with the Jewish state within its pre-1967 borders for 20, 30, or even 50 years. Israel has rejected this offer for the same reason it spurned the Arab League peace plan of 2002, which is still on the table: it involves concessions and compromises.