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Wednesday, July 09, 2008

Election date - update: stats in the mix

Have been informed centrebet are offering odds on when the election will be.
They were wrong on the election outcome itself last time - whereas I was got it right - so they are not infallable. At this point in time their odds seem rational.

With the additional information from Phil Anderson about the Statistics NZ schedule and with the key releases from the RBNZ schedule included therein our calendar below is looking in better shape now. The RBNZ's OCR interest rate announcements is the light at the end of the tunnel for Labour. The next one is in a fortnight. The one after that is 11 September and then 23 October - the Governor last month has said he was "in a position to lower the OCR later this year."

The window between likely positive economic news (interest rates coming down) and likely bad economic news (higher unemployment, sluggish earnings and depressed retail sales) is:
24 October to 3 November.

On Saturday 1 November the All Blacks play Aussie in Hong Kong. I don't think it would help Labour if NZ won - but it could dampen the general mood of the nation should the team lose. 1 November, on this analysis alone, is a logical date. But there are many factors at play including the tax package that I think (!?) comes online in October. They would want the punters to get a taste of that extra dough before they go to the polls wouldn't they?

Date of the 2008 General Election
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UPDATED: Added Stats NZ key data releases
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16 August.... 100-1

23 August.... 66-1

30 August....50-1

6 September....33-1

11 September (RBNZ- MPS&OCR/interest rates)

13 September (NZ v Aus/Brisbane)....33-1

19 September (RBNZ- imports/exports/creditcards/overseas debt)

20 September....25-1

27 September (School Holidays)....20-1

29 September (RBNZ- GDP/monetary/credit)

4 October (School Holidays)....15-1

11 October (School Holidays)....12-1

18 October....4-1 3-1
|MichaelEllis|Wally|

21 October (StatsNZ/RBNZ- 2Q CPI/inflation rate)
23 October (RBNZ- OCR/interest rates)

25 October (Labour Day weekend).... 9-1
|LegioX|Undergroundnetwork|

30 October (StatsNZ- Crime figures for '07)
30 October (RBNZ- Building permits)

1 November (NZ v Aus/Hong Kong).... 4-3
|PhilAnderson|TimSelwyn|

3 November (StatsNZ- Labour costs/QES)
4 November (US general election)
6 November (StatsNZ- Household Labour Force Survey/unemployment rate)

8 November (NZ v Sct/Edinburgh).... 3-4 1-1
|Bomber|BarnsleyBill|sdm(Scott)|Dave|JafaPete|DavidFarrar|

13 November (StatsNZ- Retail trade survey/national accounts)
14 November (Canturbury Anniversay holiday)

15 November (NZ v Ire/Dublin)... 1-1 2-1
|RichardHurst|

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Please leave your predictions in the comments and I will put your picks on.

And in case you thought you were smelling burnt toast:You were right.

2 Comments:

At 9/7/08 9:11 pm, Blogger homepaddock said...

Friday November 14th is Canterbury Anniversary Day which makes it a long weekend for the province. Elections are rarely held on holiday weekends because too may people are away from home.

 
At 10/7/08 2:46 pm, Blogger Tim Selwyn said...

Have now included Canturbury Day. Thanks.

The main topic of conversation at the trots would have been the election too - you wouldn't want to reinforce an anti-government mood at such a big event.

 

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