There is little joy in the latest TV3 political poll for the opposition.
These phone polls are now either so far out of synch with actual public opinion that they are warping perception rather than reflecting it or there has been a terrible disconnect between the opposition and the people.
There is plenty to support the first prospect. How biased are these landline polls? As Brian Rudman pointed out...
The last household Census in 2006 highlights that the worst affected areas coincide with significant clusters of state housing.
The Pt England Census block topped the poll in Auckland with 105 households having no access to telecommunications systems of any sort. Close behind came Pukekohe North (99), Clendon South (93), Otahuhu West (87), Harania East (87), Papakura East (81), Otara East (78), and on goes the list through the lower socio-economic areas.
...so these landline polls are biased. In the week of the 2011 election, TV3 had National at 49.8% when they gained 47.3%, so the good news for Labour is that TV3 over value National by 2.5%, unfortunately TV3 also had Labour at 29.4% when Labour actually got 27.5%. So they over valued Labour by 2.1%
The public would be better informed if media started including the % of don't knows.
The problem for Labour is that Labour is rising while Shearer's popularity drops creating a perception of a stall. The recent joint press conference with Winston, Russell and David was to provide the country with a glimpse of the opposition Cabinet in a confidence building exercise.
With the recession deepening and Government self mutilations mounting, the electorate will demand more vision from the opposition.
They have 2 years to find some.