Party Lists [UPDATED: commentary]

Official party lists have just been put up:

My picks as to who is likely to get in are big, the ones under are small. Based on my earlier party vote forecast. Please note this is with NZ First on 5% - if they are under then add another seat to all the parties.

Act:
1 BRASH, Don
2 ISAAC, Catherine
3 NICOLSON, Don
4 BANKS, John
5 SEYMOUR, David
6 SIMMONS, Chris
7 WHITTINGTON, Stephen
8 McCABE, Kath
9 STENT, Robyn K
10 THOMPSON, John

2.5% will only bring in 3 for Act if Banks wins Epsom, which he should despite the implosion. That means Don the farmer is out - if Winston doesn't make in in then he may squeak through.

Conservative:
1 CRAIG, Colin
2 SHELDRAKE, Kathy
3 BALDOCK, Larry
4 GAGAMOE, Fa'avae
5 DOBBS, Brian

No hope. If they had stood a strong candidate in Tamaki then perhaps they would have a shot at replacing Act as the Nats long-term micro party support, but there's only so far one rich guy's money can be spread around! Having Christian Larry Baldock (former United Future) on board sures up Conservative with capital C credentials, but without that safe electorate they can't get their foot in the door. And as for joining up with the New Citizen pro-Beijing party - that says expediency rather than values. They may get up to half a percent - maybe a bit more than the ALCP pro-marijuana party.

Greens:
1 TUREI, Metiria
2 NORMAN, Russel
3 HAGUE, Kevin
4 DELAHUNTY, Catherine
5 GRAHAM, Kennedy
6 SAGE, Eugenie Meryl
7 HUGHES, Gareth
8 CLENDON, David
9 LOGIE, Jan
10 BROWNING, Steffan
11 ROCHE, Denise
12 WALKER, Holly
13 GENTER, Julie Anne
14 MATHERS, Mojo
15 SHAW, James

Should get 10 maybe more. Will be the biggest Green caucus ever.

Labour
1 GOFF, Phil
2 KING, Annette
3 CUNLIFFE, David
4 PARKER, David
5 DYSON, Ruth
6 HOROMIA, Parekura
7 STREET, Maryan
8 COSGROVE, Clayton
9 MALLARD, Trevor
10 MORONEY, Sue
11 CHAUVEL, Charles
12 MAHUTA, Nanaia
13 ARDERN, Jacinda
14 ROBERTSON, Grant
15 LITTLE, Andrew
16 JONES, Shane
17 SIO, Sua William
18 FENTON, Darien
19 MACKEY, Moana
20 PRASAD, Rajen
21 HUO, Raymond
22 BEAUMONT, Carol
23 DAVIS, Kelvin
24 SEPULONI, Carmel
25 BARKER, Rick
26 MAHUTA-COYLE, Deborah
27 NASH, Stuart
28 CURRAN, Clare
29 BURNS, Brendon
30 HIPKINS, Chris
31 SHEARER, David
32 WOOD, Michael
33 TWYFORD, Phil
34 CHADWICK, Steve (Stephanie)
35 SUTTON, Kate
36 MIKA, Jerome
37 LEES-GALLOWAY, Iain
38 PAGANI, Josie
39 STEWART, Lynette
40 CARTER, Jordan
41 FAAFOI, Kris
42 ROSE, Christine
43 ALEXANDER, Glenda
44 ZHU, Susan
45 TIRIKATENE, Rino

Based on Labour getting 32% and Faafoi will win Mana and Tirikatene may take out Te Tai Tonga so that drops the list down a bit, and if Damian O'Conner takes West Coast then that puts our mate Kate Sutton in danger of not making it. Jordan Carter looks like he'll be out too. The young'ins are the first for the chop - it's always the way.

Mana
1 HARAWIRA, Hone Pani Tamati Waka Nene
2 SYKES, Annette Te Imaima
3 MINTO, John
4 BRADFORD, Sue
5 HARRISON, Misty Hinemoa
6 PAPALI'I, Lauaki James
7 McCLUTCHIE, Tawhai
8 GREENSILL, Angeline
9 GARDINER, Jayson
10 COOPER, Richard Shortland
11 CLEAVE, Peter
12 IRWIN, Val
13 STEVENS, Sharon
14 REEDY, Keriana
15 O'DEA, Pat

At 3% or just over that should see Sue in, and Tawhai looks impressive, perhaps could take out a laclustre Parekura [Morgan thinks otherwise - see comments]. Misty, mystery Harrison is young and a lot of credit is behind her, but I'm not sure - without a Labour Party collapse - that Mana can get above 3.5%. If the Pasifika candidate, James Papali'i can turn out the South Auckland Pacific vote then he deserves to get in as it will take Mana's party vote to over 4%.

Maori Party:
1 SHORTLAND, Waihoroi
2 SMITH, Kaapua
3 WALSH-TAPIATA, Wheturangi
4 POROU, Tina
5 BLACK, Awanui
6 MURRAY, Davina
7 TURIA, Tariana
8 SHARPLES, Pita
9 FLAVELL, Te Ururoa James
10 PEITA, Josephine

Maybe a smidge under 1% and only Tariana and Pita back in their electorates. They will cause a one seat overhang to take parliament to 121 seats most likely.

National:
1 KEY, John
2 ENGLISH, Bill
3 SMITH, Lockwood
4 BROWNLEE, Gerry
5 RYALL, Tony
6 SMITH, Nick
7 COLLINS, Judith
8 TOLLEY, Anne
9 FINLAYSON, Christopher
10 CARTER, David
11 McCULLY, Murray
12 GROSER, Tim
13 JOYCE, Steven
14 BENNETT, Paula
15 HEATLEY, Phil
16 COLEMAN, Jonathan
17 WILKINSON, Kate
18 PARATA, Hekia
19 WILLIAMSON, Maurice
20 GUY, Nathan
21 FOSS, Craig
22 TREMAIN, Chris
23 GOODHEW, Jo
24 TISCH, Lindsay
25 ROY, Eric
26 HUTCHISON, Paul
27 ARDERN, Shane
28 ADAMS, Amy
29 LOTU-IIGA, Peseta Sam
30 BRIDGES, Simon
31 WOODHOUSE, Michael
32 BORROWS, Chester
33 KAYE, Nikki
34 LEE, Melissa
35 BAKSHI, Kanwaljit Singh
36 YANG, Jian
37 NGARO, Alfred
38 SHANKS, Katrina
39 GOLDSMITH, Paul
40 HENARE, Tau
41 DEAN, Jacqui
42 WAGNER, Nicky
43 AUCHINVOLE, Chris
44 UPSTON, Louise
45 YOUNG, Jonathan
46 BLUE, Jackie
47 McCLAY, Todd
48 BENNETT, David
49 MACINDOE, Tim
50 CALDER, Cam
51 HAYES, John
52 KING, Colin
53 GILMORE, Aaron
54 ROSS, Jami-Lee
55 QUINN, Paul
56 FOSTER-BELL, Paul
57 BARRY, Maggie
58 McKELVIE, Ian
59 MITCHELL, Mark
60 SABIN, Mike

Could be a huge haul. Quinn doesn't deserve to get in and at 46% of the vote plus Maggie and the dumb plod from up North making it in that means Quinn is out.

NZ First:
1 PETERS, Winston
2 MARTIN, Tracey
3 WILLIAMS, Andrew
4 PROSSER, Richard
5 STEWART, Barbara
6 HORAN, Brendan
7 O'ROURKE, Denis
8 TAYLOR, Asenati
9 MULFORD, Helen Jane
10 BARR, Hugh
11 TABUTEAU, Fletcher H
12 PARAONE, Pita
13 CATCHPOLE, Brent
14 CRAVEN, Ben
15 HO, Jerry

Right on 5% or under, not sure so put in italics.

United Future
1 DUNNE, Peter
2 STEVENS, Doug
3 EADDY, Rob
4 EUSOFF, Sultan
5 SIMMONS, Alan

Only Dunne.

Not sure how that adds up, probably need to go up and down one or two on the big ones.

If NZ First get 4.5% then things change on the seats:

Act 3
Greens 10
Mana 5 (@3.5%)
Maori Party 2 (overhang)
Labour 41
National 59
United Future 1

If Winston can't do it then National can form a government.