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Wednesday, July 06, 2011

Te Tai Tokerau by-election: FINAL

We have a FINAL now for the by-election.
Mr Bradbury has stated just how wrong the Hone-haters in the media got it - well just how right did Tumeke! get it?

I predicted the day before the by-election:

Based on the 2008 results [...] the lower turnout at a by-election and the bad weather the total may only be around 12,000 - 14,000, maybe less. I would say the % vote is stacking up: Harawira 55%, Davis 35% Tipene 10%.

Firstly, turnout: 12,339 voting divided into 32,193 on the roll = 38.3%. Within the 12-14,000 band as forecast.

Secondly, candidate share:

Harawira (Mana) 6,065 (49.2%)
Davis (Labour) 4,948 (40.1%)
Tipene (Maori) 1,087 (8.8%)
Herbert (ALCP) 135 (1.1%)
Alp (OUR) 72 (0.5%)
Informal 32 (0.3%)
TOTAL: 12,339 (100%)

Majority Harawira: 1,117

The difference between what I forecast and the final vote count:
Harawira -5.8%
Davis +5.1%
Tipene -1.2%

Five or six percent either way and very close with the Maori Party vote. That's not too bad - and a lot better than most.

Looking forward to Hone being sworn in (hopefully on a copy of the Treaty of Waitangi) and being seated on the front bench as a party leader.


At 7/7/11 2:48 pm, Blogger Longtack said...

I like Hone, and I reckon a fairer way of assessing his glorious victory as comparing the margin with that of his closest rival. That puts his winning margin at around 20%. Bask a little longer Hone. Heh heh.


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