There has been a lot of anger at Hone appearing at Destiny Church, and it's been felt on the by election trail and so Hone has just released an open letter to Mana to explain his actions.
The slightly disconnected Solomon is a candidate that can't attract much more than single digit support and with him removed, it is a straight two horse race, and in that setting and based on the last election results Hone will win. The coverage to date would suggest it's 'neck and neck'. The same polling methodology was proclaiming Brown and Banks were neck and neck as well.
Talking to people on the ground Hone will dominate the northern part of the electorate and could see a swing out West. Where Kelvin needs to win it, he would need to get a massive turn out, and the much vaunted Labour Party machine has to save money for the election proper. Labour need to do well to win this, winning it outright eliminates a possible coalition partner and with options as limited as Labour's, that's a consideration.