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Tuesday, March 01, 2011

Ipredict stock for New Left Party rises while minimizing political impact

iPredict are having it both ways, while a New Left Party is now being punted at almost 50%, iPredict continue to claim ACT will win 5MPs and amazingly claim United Future will have 3MPs! The impact of this is to minimize the political advantage gained by a New Left Party for a Government led by Phil Goff.

A much more likely outcome is Rodney facing a new right party in Epsom fronted by Colin Craig with the brains of Peter Tashkoff behind it which either cripples Rodney and he loses to the National Party candidate, or Rodney limps home with a vastly depleted party vote now that ACT's sensible sentencing backers turned out to be utter hypocrites. Either way, ACT won't get 5 MPs.

United Future is a dead duck, Dunne will be dealt to by Charles Chauvel, Dunne holds onto Ohariu-Belmont by 1.3 per cent (1006 votes), this is the electorate that has more public servants than any other and the deep cuts made by National means a vote for Dunne means more of the same. With Dunne taken out, United Future certainly won't have 3MPs.

NZ First is interesting, their 3 big policies (to be formally launched in April) are 1: Repealing the repeal of section 59, 2: Nationalize the foreshore and seabed, 3: Make all referendum binding. These three policy are deep inside National Party rump vote, a proxy National Party protest vote for those rednecks who don't think Key goes far enough. It was this fear of a raid deep inside his own voting block that had Key rule Winston out immediately so Winnie couldn't pick up any political momentum. With Winston dog whistling while Key screams stay, the NZ First support will turn into a Pavlov dog voter ending in the real possibility NZ First will slide just shy of the 5% threshold altogether.

ACT depleted, United Future gone and a NZ First that might not even make it leaves a lot of room for the others to maneuver.


At 3/3/11 2:20 pm, Blogger jeff said...

Who are you trying to convince? Your readers or yourself?


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