Helen Clark's odds now at 3/1

Centrebet has firmed up slightly on a National-led government. There will be a lot of very confident Nat money coming in for John Key right now. I would expect that to move out when Clark wins those head-to-head debates. I expect she will wipe the floor with him and that Labour will look more competitive at that point. That is my expectation at least.

On the 15th of September - three days after the PM's announcement of the election date I made this prediction:
Party vote:
NAT 43%
LAB 37%
GRN 6%
NZF 4%
ACT 3%
MAO 2%
UNF 2%
PRG 1%
Other 2%
-------
100%

With the comment that :
I'd guess the final result would not be out too much from this with an allowance of +/- 2% for Labour and National, Greens and Winston +/- 1%, and then Act, Maori, Dunne and Anderton +/- 0.5%.

And if we run that through the election calculator we get:


The Maori Party must act very responsibly in the days after 8 November. The question they want answered from their members will be crucial.

Will the leadership go to the membership with a policy package - get them to approve it - and then go with whatever party agrees to that? (with a possible second-round approval)
or,
Will they go into those hui with a simple yes/no vote on supporting National/Labour?

Those watching the Ralston-hosted Sky TV interview with Pita Sharples on Sunday would have been amazed by the answer to Audrey Young's question on what the procedure was. There didn't seem to be any!? That process may well determine who pays out on that bet.